Fusion Markets

Contents

What_Is_PineScript

Getting Started

PineScript Syntax

Conditional Statements and Loops

Developing Strategies

Backtesting Your Strategy

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

Conclusion

What Is PineScript

Getting Started

PineScript Syntax

Developing Strategies

Backtesting Your Strategy

Once you've written your Pine Script, it's time to test its performance in various market conditions. TradingView makes this process seamless. You can choose the time frame and historical data you want to test your strategy against. The platform will then run your script against that data, showing you how your strategy would have performed. It helps identify any flaws or weaknesses in the strategy and allows for adjustments before risking real capital. This can significantly increase the chances of success in live trading. 

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

Conclusion

In the dynamic world of forex trading, understanding and effectively utilising currency pair correlations can significantly enhance trading strategies. For intermediate to advanced traders seeking to deepen their understanding and optimise their approach, delving into the nuances of currency pair correlations is essential. This comprehensive guide will explore the intricacies of currency pair correlations, their relevance in forex trading, and advanced techniques for leveraging correlations to enhance trading strategies.

Contents

Introduction to Currency Pair Correlations

Types of Correlations

Factors Influencing Correlations

Understanding Correlation Coefficients 

Utilising Correlations in Trading Strategies

Identifying Trading Opportunities

Monitoring Correlation Changes

Practical Examples and Case Studies

Conclusion

Introduction to Currency Pair Correlations

Currency pair correlations are a fundamental aspect of forex trading, providing valuable insights into the relationships between different currency pairs. By analysing these correlations, traders can diversify their portfolios, manage risk more effectively, and identify potential trading opportunities.

Currency pair correlations measure the statistical relationship between two currency pairs, indicating how closely their price movements are associated. These correlations can be positive, negative, or neutral, providing valuable information about the interplay between different currencies in the forex market.

Each currency is driven by its own fundamental factors. For example, both New Zealand and Canada are commodity-driven currencies. New Zealand is driven by a strong export of agricultural and dairy product exports, and Canada is heavily involved in oil production and exports and thus is often positively correlated with the price of crude oil. A trader looking for correlations would be smart to analyse the data and price movements of both types of commodities in order to determine if there will be a correlation between the two currencies.

Understanding currency pair correlations is crucial for forex traders seeking to optimize their trading strategies and maximise profitability. By incorporating correlations into their analysis, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions.

Types of Correlations

Positive Correlations

Positive correlations occur when the price movements of two currency pairs are positively related, meaning they tend to move in the same direction. For example, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs often exhibit positive correlations, as both currencies are positively correlated with the US dollar. Similarly, AUD/USD and NZD/USD are also closely correlated give that both their currency values are directly impacted by the US Dollar and China trade.

Positive correlations can be leveraged by traders to identify trends and capitalise on momentum in the market. By trading currency pairs with positive correlations, traders can amplify their returns and exploit opportunities for profit.

Negative Correlations

Negative correlations occur when the price movements of two currency pairs are inversely related, meaning they tend to move in opposite directions. For instance, the USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs may display negative correlations, as the US dollar and Japanese yen often move in opposite directions. Another example of a negatively correlated pair is USD/CNY (US Dollar / Chinese Yuan) .

Negative correlations can be utilised by traders for hedging purposes and risk management. By trading currency pairs with negative correlations, traders can offset potential losses and diversify their portfolios to mitigate risk.

Neutral Correlations

Neutral correlations occur when there is no significant relationship between the price movements of two currency pairs. In this case, the correlation coefficient is close to zero, indicating that the price movements of the two currency pairs are independent of each other.

While neutral correlations may not provide immediate trading opportunities, they are still valuable for advanced traders seeking to analyse market trends and anticipate potential shifts in market sentiment.

Factors Influencing Correlations

Numerous factors can influence currency pair correlations, ranging from economic indicators to geopolitical events. Understanding these factors is essential for traders seeking to anticipate market movements and adapt their strategies accordingly.

Economic Indicators

Economic indicators, such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rate decisions, can have a significant impact on currency pair correlations. For example, positive economic data from the US may strengthen the US dollar and lead to positive correlations between USD pairs.

Advanced traders should closely monitor key economic indicators and assess their potential impact on currency pair correlations. By staying informed about economic developments, traders can anticipate market trends and position themselves accordingly.

Geopolitical Events

Geopolitical events, such as elections, geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes, can also influence currency pair correlations. For instance, uncertainty surrounding Brexit negotiations may lead to increased volatility and negative correlations between GBP pairs.

Advanced traders should be vigilant about geopolitical developments and their potential impact on currency pair correlations. By analysing geopolitical risks and their implications for the forex market, traders can make more informed trading decisions and mitigate potential risks.

Market Sentiment

Market sentiment, including investor risk appetite and market volatility, can affect currency pair correlations. During periods of heightened risk aversion, safe-haven currencies like the US dollar and Japanese yen may strengthen, leading to negative correlations with riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.

Traders should monitor market sentiment indicators and assess their impact on currency pair correlations. By gauging investor sentiment and market dynamics, traders can identify trading opportunities and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Understanding Correlation Coefficients

Correlation coefficients provide a quantitative measure of the strength and direction of the relationship between two currency pairs. Advanced traders should understand how to interpret correlation coefficients and leverage this information to optimise their trading strategies.

Calculation and Interpretation

Correlation coefficients are calculated using historical price data for the currency pairs under consideration. A correlation coefficient close to +1 or -1 indicates a strong correlation, while a coefficient close to 0 suggests no significant relationship.

Traders should interpret correlation coefficients in the context of their trading strategies and market analysis. By analysing correlation coefficients, traders can identify pairs with strong correlations and capitalise on trading opportunities.

Visualisation with Correlation Matrices

Correlation matrices or charts provide visual representations of correlations between multiple currency pairs. These matrices allow advanced traders to quickly identify correlated and uncorrelated pairs and assess the diversification potential of their portfolios.

Advanced traders should utilise correlation matrices to visualise relationships between currency pairs and identify patterns or trends. By analysing correlation matrices, traders can make more informed decisions about portfolio diversification and risk management.

Utilising Correlations in Trading Strategies

Traders can incorporate currency pair correlations into their trading strategies to optimise performance and maximise profitability. By leveraging correlations effectively, traders can identify trading opportunities and mitigate potential risks.

Diversification and Hedging

Positive correlations between currency pairs can be utilised for diversification purposes, allowing traders to spread risk across correlated assets. Additionally, negative correlations can be used for hedging purposes, where positions in one currency pair are offset by positions in a negatively correlated pair to mitigate risk.

Advanced traders should assess the correlations between currency pairs and adjust their portfolios accordingly. By diversifying their holdings and hedging against adverse movements, traders can protect their capital and optimise their risk-return profile.

Correlation-Based Trading Strategies

Correlation-based trading strategies involve identifying and trading currency pairs with strong correlations. Pair trading strategies involve simultaneously buying one currency pair while selling another negatively correlated pair. Portfolio optimisation strategies aim to create diversified portfolios with uncorrelated assets to minimise risk and maximise returns.

Traders should develop robust trading strategies based on their analysis of currency pair correlations. By incorporating correlation-based strategies into their trading plans, traders can enhance their performance and achieve their financial goals.

Identifying Trading Opportunities

Traders can use correlations to identify trading opportunities based on the strength and direction of correlations between currency pairs. For example, if two positively correlated pairs temporarily diverge in price, traders may consider trading the pair that lags behind in anticipation of convergence.

Advanced traders should conduct thorough analysis of currency pair correlations and market trends to identify trading opportunities. By staying informed about market developments and leveraging correlations effectively, traders can capitalise on profitable trading opportunities.

Risk Management Techniques

While currency pair correlations can be beneficial for enhancing trading strategies, traders should implement proper risk management techniques to mitigate potential losses.

Position Sizing

Adjusting position sizes based on the correlation between currency pairs can help traders manage risk effectively. Traders may choose to reduce position sizes or avoid trading highly correlated pairs to minimise exposure to correlated market movements.

Advanced traders should carefully consider their risk tolerance and adjust their position sizes accordingly. By implementing appropriate position sizing techniques, traders can protect their capital and preserve their profitability.

Stop-Loss Orders

Using stop-loss orders can help limit losses and protect trading capital in the event of adverse price movements. Traders should place stop-loss orders based on the volatility and correlation of currency pairs to ensure adequate risk protection.

Advanced traders should set stop-loss orders based on their analysis of currency pair correlations and market conditions. By using stop-loss orders effectively, traders can minimise potential losses and preserve their trading capital.

Monitoring Correlation Changes

Currency pair correlations can fluctuate over time and in response to evolving market conditions. Advanced traders must consistently track correlation coefficients and modify their trading strategies to align with shifting market dynamics. By remaining attentive to changes in currency pair correlations and adeptly adjusting their trading approaches, traders can optimise their performance and effectively pursue their trading objectives.

Practical Examples and Case Studies

To illustrate the application of currency pair correlations in forex trading, let's consider some practical examples and case studies.

 Example 1: Diversification

A trader with a long position in EUR/USD may consider diversifying their portfolio by adding a short position in GBP/USD, which has a positive correlation with EUR/USD. This allows the trader to spread risk across multiple currency pairs and reduce exposure to adverse movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate.

 Example 2: Hedging

During periods of heightened market volatility, a trader holding a long position in AUD/USD may hedge their exposure by taking a short position in USD/JPY, which has a negative correlation with AUD/USD. This helps mitigate potential losses resulting from adverse movements in the Australian dollar-US dollar exchange rate.

Case Study: Correlation-Based Trading

A trader identifies a strong positive correlation between USD/CAD and crude oil prices due to Canada's significant oil exports. The trader takes a long position in USD/CAD and a short position in crude oil futures, anticipating that an increase in oil prices will lead to a corresponding appreciation of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar. This correlation-based trading strategy allows the trader to profit from the relationship between the two assets.

Conclusion

Currency pair correlations are a powerful tool for intermediate to advanced forex traders seeking to optimise their trading strategies and maximise profitability. By understanding the different types of correlations, analysing the factors influencing correlations, and leveraging correlation coefficients effectively, traders can enhance their performance and achieve their financial goals. Implementing proper risk management techniques is essential to mitigate potential losses and ensure long-term success in forex trading. By incorporating currency pair correlations into their trading plans and adapting to changing market conditions, traders can navigate the complexities of the forex market and achieve consistent profitability.

Embarking on your forex trading journey might seem daunting at first, but fret not! We’ve put together all the information you need to get started. 

This guide is your friendly companion, packed with real-world examples, easy-to-grasp basics, newbie-friendly strategies, handy tips, and a step-by-step roadmap to kickstart your forex adventures.

Contents 

Introduction to Forex Trading

How the Forex Market Works

Getting started in Forex Trading

Developing a Strategy 

Practical Tips for Beginners

Resources for Further Learning

Introduction to Forex Trading

Foreign exchange trading, or forex trading, is the process of buying and selling currencies in the global financial markets. It is one of the largest and most liquid markets in the world, with an average daily trading volume estimated to exceed USD$7 trillion. Unlike traditional stock markets, forex trading operates 24 hours a day, five days a week, allowing traders to participate in the market at any time.

Forex trading involves the exchange of one currency for another at an agreed-upon price. This is done with the aim of profiting from fluctuations in exchange rates. Currencies are traded in pairs, where one currency is bought while the other is sold. The most commonly traded currency pairs, or ‘the majors’ as they’re more commonly referred to, include EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar), GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar), AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar), NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar), USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen), USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar), and USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc).

Examples of other currency pairs, most often referred to as “crosses”, are AUD/JPY (Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen), GBP/NZD (British Pound/New Zealand Dollar), EUR/CAD (Euro/Canadian Dollar) and so forth.

And finally, less-traded currency pairs are referred to as “exotics”. Examples of these include USD/TRY (US Dollar/Turkish Lira), USD/HUF (US Dollar/Hungarian Forint). It’s important to note that exotic pairs tend to have wider spreads and higher volatility compared to major and minor pairs.

Uses of the forex market

The forex market is used by many players, for many different reasons. Retail traders aim at buying or selling a currency to take advantage of short-term fluctuations in price, whereas corporates who conduct regular international trade often use the forex market to hedge against their local currency weakening.

Large-scale players such as hedge funds or investment firms, will use the foreign exchange market to take advantage of divergences in interest rates between two nations in the form of a carry trade.

For more information on the types of forex trading, head to Part Four.

Reading Currency Pair Quotes

Currency pair quotes consist of two prices: the bid price and the ask price. The bid price represents the price at which you can sell the base currency, while the ask price represents the price at which you can buy the base currency. The difference between the bid and ask prices is known as the spread, which represents the broker's profit margin.

In forex trading, currency pairs are quoted in pips, short for "price interest point," representing the smallest possible price movement. For most major currency pairs, prices are quoted with four decimal points, indicating a change of 1/100 of one percent or 1 basis point. However, the Japanese Yen is an exception, trading with only two decimal points.

For instance, if the bid price for the EUR/USD pair is quoted as 1.19040, this breakdown refers to the five decimal places displayed on the market watch.

How the Forex Market Works

In order to trade the foreign exchange market effectively, you need to understand the nuts and bolts of how it works.

The forex market is decentralised, meaning that there is no central exchange where all transactions take place. Instead, trading occurs over-the-counter (OTC) through a global network of banks, financial institutions, and individual traders. Some of the larger players in the forex market are Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citi Bank, RBS and more.

Prices are determined by supply and demand dynamics, with exchange rates fluctuating based on economic indicators, geopolitical events, and market sentiment.

How the system works

Market makers are key players in the forex world. They establish both the buying (bid) and selling (ask) prices, which are visible to everyone on their platforms. Their role extends to facilitating transactions with a diverse clientele, including banks and individual traders. By consistently quoting prices, they inject liquidity into the market. As counterparties, market makers engage in every trade, ensuring a seamless flow: when you sell, they buy, and vice versa.

Electronic Communications Networks (ECNs) play a crucial role in forex trading by aggregating prices from various market participants like banks, market makers, and fellow traders. They showcase the most competitive bid and ask quotes on their platforms, drawing from this pool of prices. While ECN brokers also act as counterparts in trades, they differ from market makers in their settlement approach rather than fixed pricing. Unlike fixed spreads, ECN spreads fluctuate based on market activity, sometimes even hitting zero during peak trading times, especially with highly liquid currency pairs like the majors.

Direct Market Access (DMA) empowers buy-side firms to directly access liquidity for securities they aim to buy or sell through electronic platforms offered by third-party providers. These firms, clients of sell-side entities like brokerages and banks, maintain control over trade execution while leveraging the infrastructure of sell-side firms, which may also function as market makers.

Straight Through Processing (STP) represents a significant leap in trading efficiency, transitioning from the traditional T+3 settlement to same-day settlement. One of its notable advantages is the reduction of settlement risk. By expediting transaction processing, STP enhances the likelihood of timely contract settlement. Its core objective is to streamline transaction processing by electronically transmitting information, eliminating redundant data entry and enabling simultaneous dissemination to multiple parties when necessary.

Getting Started in Forex Trading

Choosing a Broker

When selecting a forex broker, it's essential to not only consider the fees, but also regulatory compliance, trading platform, and customer support. Look for brokers regulated by reputable authorities such as the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the US.

Here at Fusion Markets we’re dedicated to offering a quality service with an affordable fee structure. You can learn more about trading forex or view our licences. 

Setting Up Your Trading Account

Once you've chosen a broker, the next step is to open a trading account. This typically involves completing an online application, submitting identification documents, and funding your account. Forex brokers offer various account types to suit different trading preferences, including standard accounts, mini accounts, and demo accounts for practice trading.

Developing a Strategy

Identify Your Trading Style

Before developing a trading strategy, it's essential to identify your trading style, whether it's day trading, swing trading, or position trading. Your trading style will dictate the timeframe you trade on and the types of setups you look for in the market.

Below are the types of pros and cons of each trading style:

Types of Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

Unlike technical analysis, which primarily relies on historical price data, fundamental analysis examines economic indicators, monetary policies, geopolitical events, and other macroeconomic factors to gauge the strength and direction of a currency's movement.

Central to fundamental analysis is the understanding that currency prices are ultimately driven by supply and demand dynamics, which in turn are influenced by broader economic conditions. For example, factors such as interest rates, inflation rates, GDP growth, unemployment levels, and trade balances can all impact a currency's value.

One of the key concepts in fundamental analysis is interest rate differentials. Central banks use interest rates as a tool to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Currencies with higher interest rates tend to attract more investors seeking higher returns on their investments, leading to an appreciation in their value relative to currencies with lower interest rates. Traders closely monitor central bank announcements and economic reports to anticipate changes in interest rates and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

Another important aspect of fundamental analysis is the assessment of economic indicators. These indicators provide insights into the health of an economy and can influence currency prices. For example, strong GDP growth and low unemployment rates are typically associated with a robust economy and may lead to appreciation in the currency. Conversely, high inflation or rising unemployment may weaken a currency.

Geopolitical events can also have a significant impact on currency prices. Political instability, conflicts, trade tensions, and other geopolitical factors can create uncertainty in the market and cause fluctuations in currency prices. Traders must stay informed about geopolitical developments and assess their potential impact on currency markets.

While fundamental analysis provides valuable insights into the long-term trends and direction of currency markets, it is important to note that currency prices can also be influenced by short-term factors and market sentiment. Therefore, traders often use a combination of fundamental and technical analysis to make informed trading decisions.

Technical Analysis

Technical analysis involves studying historical price data and using various charting tools and indicators to identify patterns and trends. Common technical analysis tools include moving averages, trendlines, and oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Traders use technical analysis to make short-term trading decisions based on price action and market momentum.

Technical analysis is a cornerstone of forex trading, offering traders a systematic approach to interpreting market dynamics and making informed trading decisions based on historical price movements and market statistics. Unlike fundamental analysis, which focuses on economic indicators and macroeconomic factors, technical analysis relies solely on price data and trading volume to forecast future price movements.

At its core, technical analysis is based on the efficient market hypothesis, which posits that all relevant information is already reflected in an asset's price. Therefore, by analysing past price movements, traders believe they can identify recurring patterns and trends that may indicate potential future price directions.

One of the fundamental concepts in technical analysis is that of support and resistance levels. Support represents a price level where buying interest is sufficiently strong to prevent the price from falling further, while resistance is a level where selling pressure is sufficient to halt an upward price movement. Traders use these levels to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades.

Example of support and resistance areas on EURUSD Daily chart

Another key tool in technical analysis is chart patterns, which are formed by the recurring movements of prices over time. Common chart patterns include triangles, flags, and head and shoulders formations. By recognising these patterns, traders attempt to predict future price movements and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

In addition to chart patterns, technical analysts also utilise technical indicators to aid in their analysis. These indicators are mathematical calculations based on price and volume data and are used to identify trends, momentum, volatility, and other aspects of market behavior. Popular technical indicators include moving averages, oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and trend-following indicators such as the Average Directional Index (ADX).

While technical analysis is a powerful tool for forex traders, it is not without its limitations. Critics argue that technical analysis is subjective and prone to interpretation bias, as different analysts may draw different conclusions from the same set of data. Moreover, technical analysis does not account for fundamental factors such as economic news and geopolitical events, which can have a significant impact on currency prices.

Despite these limitations, technical analysis remains an indispensable tool for forex traders worldwide. By understanding and applying technical analysis principles, traders can gain valuable insights into market trends and dynamics, allowing them to make more informed trading decisions and improve their overall trading performance.

Risk Management

Setting Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders

Stop-loss orders are used to limit losses by automatically closing a trade at a predetermined price level. Take-profit orders, on the other hand, are used to lock in profits by closing a trade when the price reaches a specified target. By using stop-loss and take-profit orders, traders can manage risk and control their downside exposure.

Position Sizing

Position sizing involves determining the appropriate amount of capital to risk on each trade based on factors such as account size, risk tolerance, and the probability of success. A common rule of thumb is to risk no more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any single trade to preserve capital and avoid significant drawdowns.

Your Strategy

Once you’ve determine what style of trading would suit you best, you now need to develop a strategy. There are thousands of different strategies out there so you have the choice of learning one from someone else, or developing your own.

Regardless, some common strategies include:

Trend Following Strategies

Trend following strategies in forex trading involve identifying and capitalising on established market trends. Traders employing this approach aim to enter positions in the direction of the prevailing trend, whether it's upward (bullish) or downward (bearish), and ride the momentum for as long as possible. These strategies typically utilise technical indicators, such as moving averages and trendlines, to confirm the direction of the trend and determine optimal entry and exit points. The goal of trend following strategies is to capture significant portions of a trend's movement while minimising losses during market reversals.

NZDUSD Daily Chart showing optimal entry points to go short during a bearish trend.

Range-bound strategies

Range-bound strategies in forex trading focus on exploiting price movements within defined ranges or boundaries. Traders employing this approach identify periods when a currency pair is trading within a relatively narrow price range, bounded by support and resistance levels. Instead of following a trend, range-bound traders seek to buy near support and sell near resistance, aiming to profit from the price being restricted to the range highs and lows.

USDJPY 15min chart with optimal buy and sell signals for a range-bound strategy

Breakout Strategies

Breakout trading strategies in forex involve capitalising on significant price movements that occur when an asset's price breaks through predefined support or resistance levels. Traders employing this approach wait for a clear breakout from the established range and then enter positions in the direction of the breakout, anticipating continued momentum in that direction. Breakout traders typically use technical indicators, such as trendlines, moving averages, and volatility measures, to identify potential breakout opportunities and confirm the strength of the breakout. The goal of breakout trading strategies is to capture rapid price movements and profit from the subsequent price trend.

Example of an opportune entry for a bullish breakout trade on EURUSD 4-hour chart

The key to developing a strategy that works for you is by studying the charts and thinking about what makes sense to you. If you think patterns make sense as they identify areas of consolidation which can lead to a breakout, then pattern trading could be a good fit for you.

It’s important for any trader to stick with their chosen strategy and not switch strategies every time they encounter a losing streak.

Practical Tips for Beginners

Maintain a Trading Journal

Keeping a trading journal allows traders to track their performance, analyse their trades, and identify areas for improvement. A trading journal should include details such as entry and exit points, trade rationale, risk-reward ratio, and emotional state. By reviewing past trades, traders can learn from their mistakes and refine their trading strategies over time.

Avoid Overleveraging

While leverage can amplify profits, it also increases the risk of significant losses. Avoid overleveraging by using leverage cautiously and only trading with capital you can afford to lose. A general rule is to keep leverage levels below 10:1 to mitigate risk effectively. The best position is cash. You should ensure you’re only taking the most high-probability set-ups that are in-line with your strategy.

Stay Disciplined

Maintain discipline in your trading approach by sticking to your trading plan and avoiding emotional decision-making. Avoid chasing losses or deviating from your strategy based on fear or greed. Consistency and discipline are key to long-term success in forex trading. Sometimes it’s best to walk away from the charts and come back the next day with a clearer head.

Manage Emotions Effectively

Trading can be emotionally challenging, with the potential for both euphoria and despair. Learn to manage your emotions effectively by practicing mindfulness techniques, maintaining a positive mindset, and taking regular breaks from the market. Remember that losses are a natural part of trading, and it's essential to stay resilient and focused on your long-term goals.

Be realistic with your expectations

Trading can be very lucrative, but it can also be very costly. Traders should be realistic in their expectations – what % will you aim for each month? How much are you going to risk? Risking 20% of your equity per trade will be great on winning trades, but it won’t take long for you to eradicate your entire balance on a handful of losses. Whereas risking 1% equity per trade will allow you to conserve as much capital as possible, whilst still gaining 1%+ per winning trade.

Resources for Further Learning

To continue your forex trading education, consider exploring the following resources:

• Books: "Currency Trading for Dummies" by Brian Dolan, "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison, and "Market Wizards" by Jack D. Schwager.
• Online Courses: Investopedia Academy, Udemy, and Coursera offer a variety of forex trading courses for beginners and advanced traders.
• Forums and Communities: Join online forums and communities such as Forex Factory, BabyPips and TradingView to connect with other traders, share ideas, and learn from experienced professionals.

Ready to get started?

In the fast-paced world of forex trading, having access to a reliable and efficient trading platform is paramount to your trading success. Among the titans of the forex trading platform world, two names stand out: cTrader and MetaTrader 4/5 (MT4 and MT5). These platforms have amassed an extensive user base and earned their loyal followings.

In this article, we'll delve into the intricacies of each platform, comparing their features, advantages, and limitations, to help you determine which platform is right for you.

Contents 

Genesis

User Interface and Customisation

Charting and Technical Analysis

Order Types and Placement

Algorithmic Trading and Expert Advisors

Mobile Trading

The Genesis of cTrader and MetaTrader

MetaTrader is the brainchild of MetaQuotes Software. The company introduced the first version, MetaTrader 4 (MT4), in 2005. Its successor, MetaTrader 5 (MT5), followed in 2010, bringing a host of new features and capabilities to the table.

cTrader was launched by Spotware Systems Ltd. in 2011, aiming to provide traders with a platform that offers a user-friendly interface and advanced functionalities. cTrader's main focus is on creating a seamless trading experience for both beginner and experienced traders alike.

User Interface and Customisation

One of the most significant factors in a trading platform's popularity is its user interface (UI). Despite MT4 being somewhat outdated compared to cTrader's modern design, both offer clean and intuitive interfaces, making them relatively easy for traders to navigate. However, they have different approaches when it comes to customisation.

cTrader takes the lead in UI customisation, allowing traders to personalise their workspace extensively. Users can arrange and resize various windows, add or remove trading indicators, and set up multiple charts on a single screen. This level of flexibility empowers traders to create an environment tailored to their specific trading needs.

On the other hand, MetaTrader, especially MT4, has a more rigid UI, with limited customisation options. While MT5 improved in this aspect, it still lags behind cTrader's superior customisation features. 

Charting and Technical Analysis

In terms of charting and technical analysis, both platforms deliver robust solutions. Traders can access a wide range of chart types, timeframes, and drawing tools on both cTrader and MetaTrader.

cTrader stands out with its intuitive charting package, providing more than 70 pre-installed indicators and a smooth drawing experience. It also offers Level II pricing data with its 3 depth of market (DoM) types (Standard, Price, VWAP), giving traders a greater insight into market depth and liquidity.

MetaTrader, however, remains a popular choice for technical analysis enthusiasts, thanks to its massive library of third-party indicators and analytical tools. This vibrant community-driven ecosystem ensures that traders have access to an extensive arsenal of tools to refine their strategies.

Let's dive into the specifics:

MetaTrader 4

Chart Types: MetaTrader 4 supports three fundamental chart types, namely Bar, Line, and Candlestick.

Timeframes: Nine distinct timeframes, spanning from 1 minute to 1 month.

Analytical Objects: 24 analytical objects, including lines, channels, shapes, arrows, and essential Gann and Fibonacci tools.

Technical Indicators: 30 built-in technical indicators. Furthermore, traders can explore over 2,000 free custom indicators and access 700 premium indicators available in the Code Base.

Chart Views: The platform allows traders to open an unlimited number of charts simultaneously. Moreover, traders can personalize their charts by creating templates that define specific attributes such as color schemes, chart types, scales, line studies, and applied indicators.

cTrader

Chart Types: cTrader comes with 8 chart types, but also includes additional variations such as tick and pip charts. These chart types include Bar, Line, Candlestick, Heikin-Ashi, HLC, Dot, Tick (configurable with 27 settings), Renko (with 19 settings), and Range-based charts (with 22 settings).

Timeframes: cTrader features 26 timeframes with the standard chart and over 50 timeframes and six zoom levels across all chart types (including tick and pip charts).

Analytical Objects: The platform boasts 33 analytical objects. 

Technical Indicators: cTrader offers 70 built-in technical indicators.

Chart Views: cTrader introduces Chart Views, allowing traders to detach charts and use them as separate tradable desktop applications across multiple screens. Additionally, ChartShot enables traders to share trading examples and strategies relatively easily.

Order Types and Placement

Now that we've got a comprehensive view of the differences in charting, let's delve into the nuances of order placement in MetaTrader and cTrader, highlighting their distinct approaches and functionalities:

Order Placement in cTrader

• Weekend Order Placement: Traders using cTrader have the unique advantage of placing waiting orders during weekends, even when the markets are closed. This feature facilitates meticulous planning and analysis, allowing traders to prepare for the trading week ahead.
  
  
• Specialized Order Types: cTrader goes a step further by introducing specialized order types like Buy or Sell Limit, adding an additional layer of risk management and trading versatility to the platform.
  
  
• Click-and-Drag: Waiting orders, such as Buy Limit or Sell Stop, can be placed by selecting the order type and adjusting its position through an intuitive click-and-drag action directly on the chart.
  
  
• Specialised Stop-Out features: Smart Stop-Out (partial closure while retaining entry) and Fair Stop-Out (full closure to maximize margin for active positions) give traders better risk management tools.

Order Placement in MetaTrader

• Traditional Approach: MetaTrader employs traditional methods for order placement, necessitating traders to click directly on the desired spot in the chart to execute waiting orders.
  
  
• Limited Specialized Order Types: MetaTrader has all the necessary order types needed for trading but lacks some of the more advanced features like cTrader's smart stop out.

Algorithmic Trading and Expert Advisors

The next significant aspect we need to consider is automated trading. In MetaTrader applications, both MT4 and MT5, traders can utilise Expert Advisors (EAs), which are manually coded programs designed for automated tasks, such as technical analysis of price data and executing positions on specific instruments.

When comparing MT4 to MT5, the primary difference between their Expert Advisors lies in the programming language they employ. Since MQL4 has been in use for a longer time than MQL5, there is a more extensive collection of pre-written scripts and codes available for traders to create their personal Expert Advisors, even if they lack programming knowledge. On the other hand, MQL5 is a simpler programming language, making it easier for traders to create new scripts themselves.

Regarding cTrader, it also offers similar programs known as cBots, which function similarly to Expert Advisors. As mentioned earlier, cTrader uses the widely recognised C# programming language, theoretically making it the most versatile among the three languages (MQL4, MQL5, and C#) with a larger consumer base. 

However, in reality, cBots are less popular than Expert Advisors (EAs), and the reason for this is that the online trading community supporting EAs is much larger than that of cBots. Consequently, there are more pre-existing templates available for MT4/MT5 compared to cTrader. 

Mobile Trading

Mobile trading has become an integral part of the modern trading experience. Both platforms offer mobile applications for iOS and Android devices, enabling traders to stay connected to the markets on the go.

cTrader's mobile app is widely acclaimed for its user-friendly design and seamless functionality. It provides real-time quotes, interactive charts, and order execution capabilities, giving traders full control over their portfolios from the palm of their hand.

MetaTrader's mobile app, too, is highly regarded and offers a range of features for on-the-go trading. It allows traders to access their accounts, execute trades, and monitor markets in real time.

Conclusion

In conclusion, both cTrader and MetaTrader are powerful trading platforms, each with its own set of unique features and strengths. cTrader shines in its user-friendly interface, extensive customisation options, and array of features. On the other hand, MetaTrader's widespread popularity gives traders a great pool of resources to draw on and stronger community support, while having all the tools needed to be successful in the markets.

Ultimately, the choice between cTrader and MetaTrader depends on individual preferences, trading styles, and specific needs. Traders should consider their asset preferences, technical analysis requirements, and whether they prefer a larger community-driven ecosystem or a more user-friendly interface with more features. Regardless of the choice, both platforms have significantly contributed to enhancing the trading experience for millions of traders worldwide.

Ready to Start Trading?

1. Sign Up for Fusion Markets, Australia's Lowest Cost Forex Provider*
   
   
2. Create Your cTrader or MetaTrader 4 or 5 Account.
   
   
3. Download Your Preferred Version of cTrader (Desktop, Mobile - iOS and Android), MetaTrader 4 (Desktop, Mobile - iOS and Android) or MetaTrader 5.
   Or
   Trade With Your Browser with cTrader WebTrader, MetaTrader 4 WebTrader or MetaTrader 5 WebTrader.
   
   
4. Fund Your Account
   
   
5. Start Trading!

The forex symbol USD/BRL indicates the exchange rate value between the USD (US dollar) and the BRL (Brazilian Real)

Currency background

USD (US dollar)

The USD dollar is the United States of America’s official currency. Each dollar is made up of 100 cents. It is represented by US$ when differentiating it from other countries’ dollar currencies. However, they are more often just marked as $.

This currency has become the benchmark for other currencies because it is the most popularly used one. Even territories beyond the US have commonly used it as an unofficial currency.

Because it is often at the core of foreign-exchange trades, it has its own index – the USDX. It is regarded as the world’s most stable currency.

Brazilian Real (BRL)

The Brazilian Real (BRL) is Brazil’s official currency. Each Brazilian real is made up of 100 centavos. It is represented by the R$ symbol.

It was first used as the country’s official currency in July 1994. It replaced the cruzeiro real. The exchange ratio between the former and the current currencies are not 1:1, either. 1 real is equals to 2,750 cruzeiro real.

From 1994 to 1999, BRL was pegged to the USD as an attempt to maintain stability. As the largest Latin American economy, it is worth looking into. It is also the 9th largest in the world.

If you’re considering taking the USD/BRL pair, here are the things to consider:

Economic Conditions

Currency values depend on the economic conditions and public reception of their country’s stability.

Since the mid-twentieth century, the USD dollar has established itself as a powerhouse in the global economy. However, because it is a fiat currency, it is also affected by the United States’ economic outlook and activity.

Its strength may be good for the country itself. It can also be good for those who may be relying on its general strength to earn in foreign exchanges.

However, a powerful USD can be detrimental to countries relying on exports from the United States.

While the USD is obviously strong throughout, much can be said about Brazil’s economy as well. It is believed to be one of the strongest emerging economies due to its rich natural resources.

Its diversity in economy has spurred foreign investment to pour in. With an estimated $200 billion of direct investments, Brazil’s currency is doing great.

It wasn’t always the case. The currency faced several currency crises such as the Mexican currency one from 1994 to 1995, and the one with Asia and Russia in 1997 and 1999. Investors then didn’t want to have anything to do with the Brazilian real.

Supply and Demand

When the US exports more products, it triggers more demand for its currency because customers must change their money to dollars to be able to pay for the goods.

The US government and top American corporations may also issue bonds that can be purchased only with the US Dollar. Foreign investors must buy dollars to buy those financial instruments.

Because of the overall reliability and strength of the US dollar, a lot of investors will still buy the currency as a reserve.

Perception

Currencies depend on perception or market sentiment. For example, if people have been watching the news, finding out about a weakened US economy or increased unemployment, the tendency is to buy back their local currency. This will lower the value of the dollar.

The same goes with the BRL, but even worse since it is a less popular currency. While its economy is doing well and has it placed up there among emerging markets, political corruption could be its downfall.

Geopolitical Conditions and Global Risks

One of the factors that affect perception is geopolitical conditions. How are the politics in the country?

USD is a dominant global reserve. It may experience some lows, but it is always generally high in value. Recent events have this fiat currency on the rise, too. On the other hand, Brazil also started strong this year and has been pulling from Russian assets.

What can provide some volatility in the USD/BRL pair is Lula’s recent election as the President of Brazil.

How to trade USD/BRL

Now that you know the strength of the individual currencies, how do you trade the USD/BRL pair?

The value you get will depend on the exchange rate between the two.

While USD is a stable currency, Brazilian real is the currency of an emerging market. It means that Brazil’s GDP has been steadily growing from 2000. A similar trend is expected to continue.

You will earn a profit because an emerging market’s GDP tends to grow rapidly. However, you must be vigilant because it is also at risk of being negatively impacted by political instability and currency fluctuations. Weigh risks against rewards.

Pick the right time frame

Trade when the USD/BRL is at its busiest, and potentially at its most volatile. The 8:00 to 12:00 Eastern Time frame is also the time when USD details are more readily available.

It is when significant chunks of data have been released that a currency pair’s volatility increases. Be watchful at this time because you will have increased opportunities for profitable trades.

Conclusion

USD/BRL is useful if you want to diversify your foreign exchange portfolio. Your portfolio may see increased gains/losses when one of the fiat currencies in your portfolio is an emerging one.

Why?

Emerging currencies are more likely to display greater volatility. They have also been steadily rising since 2000. Though the previous formation is not a guarantee of future performance, the current strength of currencies like the Brazilian Real is reassuring.

Of course, you will be dealing with two currencies that can give you a lot of value. The USD is always strong. Meanwhile, BRL performs well because of the resources and commodities that Brazil can export. Exports can strengthen both currencies because they prompt investors to buy them.

If you’ve hung around the Internet in the past five years, you’ve probably heard of the term “Bitcoin” or “cryptocurrency” being thrown about.

But what is cryptocurrency, and how does it work? How is it any different from the money we’ve grown used to over the past century? And how does cryptocurrency trading work?

People are talking about getting rich or blowing away their savings on this new technology, and it’s safe to say that cryptocurrency has taken the finance and tech industries by storm.

If you’re a little unfamiliar with cryptocurrency and you want to see what the hype has been all about, read on to get answers to your questions about cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency trading.

What is cryptocurrency?

In simple terms, cryptocurrency is a digital currency. It doesn’t exist in physical form and exists only in the digital world.

The main uses for cryptocurrency are “store of value,” currency, and as a traded item.

Cryptocurrency as a store of value is a fairly simple concept: you buy it and hold on to it while its value increases. This kind of use is why phrases like “investing in cryptocurrency” have popped up.

Since, for some people, the value of cryptocurrency will only increase as it becomes more widely accepted, they see cryptocurrency as more of a speculative investment than a commodity.

Whether or not cryptocurrency is a good investment will remain to be seen in the future, but it’s definitely true that the value of Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency, has skyrocketed in the past years. Although with much volatility along the way to say the least.

As a currency, it works fairly like money, where you can use it to buy goods and services. A decade ago, you could use it to buy things only in the niche areas of the Internet. However, the acceptance of cryptocurrency is spreading more and more, and in some countries like El Salvador, Bitcoin has even become legal tender.

Like our typical currency (called fiat), the value of cryptocurrency also changes constantly. This is why there are markets for cryptocurrency trading available, and we’ll talk about that more later on.

What are the most popular cryptocurrencies to trade?

There are plenty of digital currencies around, and the most popular one, Bitcoin, is just one of many. There’s also Ethereum, Stellar, Ripple XRP, and Litecoin, which are some of the most traded cryptocurrencies around.

In more recent news, you’ve probably heard of Dogecoin as well. It’s a more niche meme that has gotten a lot of attention (Thanks, Elon!) as a cryptocurrency for trading, mostly because it saw a sudden increase in trading volume.

There are thousands of different cryptocurrencies out there, which just shows how versatile cryptocurrency is. If you want to trade cryptocurrencies, you can easily do so on platforms like Fusion Markets. These work very similarly to forex markets, where people buy and sell cryptocurrency regularly.

However, if you’re looking to trade cryptocurrency, it’s always important to do your research on which ones are good and which ones are not.

Benefits of cryptocurrency trading

For most traders, the biggest benefit of cryptocurrency trading is its novelty. Since cryptocurrency is still in its relative infancy, it has plenty of room to grow, and as it does, many believe that the value will only go higher and higher.

Another benefit is the fact that the cryptocurrency trading market is 24/7. Unlike trading individual stocks between 10am and 4pm (like in Australia), or even 24/5 like Forex, Crypto runs 24/7.

As long as people are willing to buy and willing to sell, the market will always run. This means that you don’t have to wait for market hours if you want to make a trade.

One more thing to note is the volatility. Cryptocurrency is volatile, much more volatile than forex and stocks. The prices of cryptocurrency can rise and plunge in a matter of seconds for seemingly no good reason, and for a lot of people, this volatility brings in a lot of excitement yet is not for the faint hearted.

Risk management

Of course, the things that make cryptocurrency trading the most exciting are also the biggest risks.

The volatility of cryptocurrency means that it can plunge just as easily as it rose. In fact, if you look at a price chart of Bitcoin, you’ll see that there have been multiple plunges that caused people to think that it was the end of crypto.

Additionally, the fact that the markets are open 24/7 means that the price can change significantly while you’re away, much like forex trading. It’s on you to make sure that you can trade while maintaining a good work/life balance.

Main differences between crypto and forex/fiat

While cryptocurrency is a digital currency, it doesn’t mean it’s the same as the money you have on a wallet such as PayPal.

Fiat currency like the US Dollar or the Euro is backed by physical currency. This means that for every dollar you have on your online account, there’s an equivalent physical form stored somewhere.

In contrast, cryptocurrency is purely digital. There’s no withdrawing it for cash, and the closest you can get is putting it in cold storage wallets instead of keeping it at an exchange, but that’s about it.

One more thing to note is that fiat currency is centralized finance, meaning that it’s regulated by the government that issues it. The US Government regulates and prints the US Dollar, for instance.

On the other hand, cryptocurrency is decentralized finance or “defi.” There’s no particular institution that regulates it. Instead, every single computer that’s on the network, or the “blockchain,” works to validate every transaction that takes place.

Basically, all computers monitor everything instead of trusting one institution (like a government) to do it for everybody. This aspect of cryptocurrency is the most appealing for many people because of its libertarian aspects since it’s free from government or bank control.

Additionally, the decentralized nature of the blockchain makes it so that it’s harder to commit fraud. Since all computers monitor the ledger of transactions, anyone who would want to make a fraudulent transaction would have to defraud all the computers on the blockchain.

That’s a lot of computers across the world.

There’s so much more to cryptocurrency, and we’ve barely scratched the surface of the technology behind it. We are witnessing a digital revolution in the making, so if this article has gotten you interested, and if you want to dip your toes in, it’s always best to do a lot of research and practice on a demo account first before spending your hard-earned money.

Sleepless nights are a common predicament for most traders. It is the only time you are not consciously screening the markets. As stressful as it can be to sleep with volatile open positions, it is extremely important that you beat the urge to make impulsive moves and that you give your brain some rest.

Since the forex markets run 24/5, most people barely get enough sleep while the markets are open. But this kind of lifestyle will ultimately lead you to make sub-optimal biased trading decisions.

Depending on which part of the world you’re in, the markets might move the most while you should be asleep. For those here in Australia, we are sleeping while the US is in their trading day, which, when you have large open positions active in the market, can make it even more difficult to get a good sleep.

But here’s the thing most traders are not thinking about. Getting a good night’s sleep every day is just as crucial as your fundamental and technical knowledge. Still, many of us tend to overlook a good rest, thinking we can survive on far less than we need. Let’s look at why sleep is essential for forex trading and how to cultivate a good sleep routine.

Why is sleep important for traders?

Sleep plays a big part in our mental wellness, which then affects our decision-making for the day.When you’re placing trades that involve vast amounts of money along with prices that change every second, you want the part of your brain that makes decisions (the pre-frontal cortex, if we’re being precise) to be in tiptop shape.

Ask any elite athlete what one of the most essential tools they have for recovery is, and it’s often sleep. Lebron James, for example, reportedly sleeps as much as 10 hours a night. Now I know what you’re thinking, “Well, I’m not an elite athlete and I’m certainly not Lebron”. But you are trying to obtain peak (trading) performance, right?

Trading involves competent risk management. Before you execute those trades, you want to have a clear picture of the risks and benefits so that you can make calculated and well-informed decisions. When you don’t allow your body and mind to rest well, your practical decision-making is overshadowed by restless behavior patterns.

Basically, good sleep keeps you sharp and productive. On the other hand, studies show that lack of sleep tends to impair decision-making involving complex factors and unexpected occurrences, which occurs quite a lot when the markets are open. By having good sleep regularly, you allow your brain to make unimpaired decisions compared to when you are sleep-deprived.

And speaking of the brain…  

What’s the science behind it?

First, let’s look at what goes on in your brain when you sleep.

Throughout the day, when you’re awake, the brain accumulates metabolic waste. You don’t even have to exercise or move around to accumulate it. Your body already expends energy by just keeping your basic functions running, like breathing and pumping blood.

In using energy, metabolic waste builds up in various parts of your body, your brain included. In time, the buildup can interfere with the peak functions of your brain. When you sleep, your brain sees the perfect opportunity to do some house cleaning. The brain has a built-in waste removal system which is called the glymphatic system.

Sure, the glymphatic system also works while you’re awake, but the cleanup process is at least twice as fast when you’re asleep. This is because your brain knows that there’s not much going on in your body, which allows it to focus on clearing up.

This is why you always feel refreshed and focused when you wake up after a good night’s sleep. And since mental wellness plays a huge part in your trading psychology and your trading mindset, you always want to be in this “clear” state whenever you’re trading. When you’re sleep-deprived, the part of your brain in charge of your fight or flight reactions — the amygdala — is far more stimulated than it would be when you’ve had a normal amount of sleep.

What does this mean for you as a trader?

Well, try to go back to the last time your fight or flight reaction (or amygdala hijack) got triggered. Maybe you were in a disagreement with a colleague or a friend, or you were in an emergency. Wasn’t it hard to stay focused because you felt like a thousand things were going on at once? Now think about how you feel when you’re sleep-deprived and a trade isn’t going your way and a new announcement means you need to think about the implications and what’s next for the market. Are you at your best cognitively at this point? Probably not.

A stimulated amygdala makes it hard to make logical decisions. It also cuts off access to your pre-frontal cortex, which is in charge of making logical decisions. And as forex traders, our trading mindset should always be governed by logical, not emotional, decisions.

Unfortunately, your brain is more likely to go into fight or flight mode with a lack of sleep. You aren’t thinking or seeing the market clearly. Maybe you’re paranoid about your trade, or you see things that aren’t there, or maybe you enter or exit the trade too early.
  

How does a good night’s sleep benefit your trading?

A good night’s sleep gives you good preparation for the trades you’ll be making the next day. Your brain is clearer, and your mind is sharper. When you look at the charts, you’ll be less likely to be influenced by sudden price fluctuations, which we know are all too common in financial markets, particularly in forex trading.

By consistently making good forex trading decisions, you’re more likely to see bigger gains in your trades.

In fact, one study  suggested that sleep-deprived forex traders had relatively lower returns because their decision-making skills were affected.

A good night’s sleep also promotes a healthy work-life balance. You may be a forex trader, but it’s also important to look into your personal health outside the financial markets. You feel more energized and alert when you are awake, allowing you to see new opportunities in the market that an otherwise tired trader might not. This could be your edge.  

Tips for sleeping better

Now that we’ve talked about why sleep is important, let’s talk about developing good sleeping habits.

First, reduce your screen exposure before bedtime. Blue light keeps our brains alert, and this is the kind of light that you usually see from your phones and your living room lights.

Put the phone down and shut off your computer. As hard as it is, that will mean trying to keep your eyes off the charts. Try having herbal tea (Peppermint, chamomile is best for relaxing), reading a physical book (to avoid more screentime), or doing something that relaxes you to get your brain ready for bed. If you really must check your phone or computer late at night, try using apps that make the screen appear “warmer,” giving it an orange tint or via “dark mode” starting from a couple of hours before your bedtime.

Orange lighting is less harsh compared to blue light, which makes it easier to eventually fall asleep.

Second, if you can afford it, separate your workspace from your bedroom. You want your brain to associate your bedroom with rest and relaxation so that as soon as you walk into the bedroom, your brain “gets” it and starts powering down. Playing on your phone or laptop in bed is likely confusing your brain.

Third, keep your room to a cool temperature. Ideally, between 18-20 degrees Celsius.

Finally, one of the worst things you can do is get up and check your phone or computer for what’s happening in the market. The screentime on your eyes, the adrenaline rush, and more will only cause you to make an emotional decision.

If it makes you feel better, a stop-loss or a take profit takes a lot of the unknowns out of the equation. Your trade will either have one of three things happen: It’s still open, it’s been closed with profit, or closed with a loss. By leaving the outcome to the market, you are more likely to think too heavily about it all through the night.

Forex trading is not all about the technical and analytical aspects. A sound body complements a sound mind. You should take care of both aspects to make sure you are at your best. In our view, a well-rested trader will likely exceed a sleep-deprived trader that’s not at peak cognitive performance.

If you are a regular trader and you’ve realized that trading is taking up way too much of your time, you might want to look into automated trading.

For the uninitiated, automated trading involves inputting a set of commands that will automatically execute when certain conditions are met.

You can set your buying price and selling price in advance. When the stock or currency price meets the price you’ve set beforehand, trading software (like MetaTrader) will automatically execute your trade. For the more seasoned traders, you can also base the buying and selling points on conditions like moving averages or convergences. You can even go more complex with algorithmic trading, using complicated algorithms you write yourself to execute trades. This is where trading robots come in, and they can be pretty good at what they do.

The best thing about automated trading is that you don’t have to spend hours upon hours monitoring graphs and charts, waiting for the best time to trade. This is wonderful for forex trading, where the markets are open 24/5.

Additionally, automated trading gives you (or at least, your trading robot) the power to scan millions of different charts at a speed that no human ever could.

There are even features like Fusion+ copy trading, where you can set the program to automatically copy a trader’s actions. If there’s a forex trader you really trust, for example, then you can save yourself the hassle and just set the software to copy all their trades.

Of course, automated trading takes a little learning to get into, which is why we are providing this beginner’s guide to automated trading.

1)     Buy off the shelf to start

There are a number of platforms that offer automated trading software. There’s no need to build a trading robot from scratch, especially if you’re just starting out.

Trading platforms like MetaTrader4 — the most popular forex trading platform — have tools that allow you to get into automated forex trading. You can check out the “Market” tab in your trade terminal section within the platform and have a browse of a wide range of EAs/robots to purchase to get started.

Their platform lets you use trading robots built by others (there are paid and free versions) and if you want to start off with a small amount of capital just to see how it feels, this is the place to do it.

2)     Know the difference between a good robot and a bad robot

As with any software you plan to download and use, you should know if the robot you’re planning to use is a good one. After all, real money is involved here.

In forex trading, where markets run 24/7, you don’t want to waste your money on a trading robot that gives you losses.

First, you can consider the track record of the trading robot. This can be as easy as looking at the robot’s reviews on the website itself or looking it up on forex trading forums where you’re bound to find forex traders who regularly use robots.

Second, just look at the website itself. If it looks unprofessional or promises unrealistic returns, you’ll want to stay away. One of the primary rules in forex trading is that if a deal is too good to be true, it probably is.

Third, look at the price itself. Trading robots are complicated software that took a lot of work to make. You’ll be hard-pressed to find good robots that are cheap or even free. If you see a trading robot that’s a little too cheap for you, keep looking.

Finally, you can find plenty of third-party websites such as Myfxbook.com, Forex Peace Army, or the MetaTrader Market that let you find the most popular robots, reviews from real traders that have used the EAs. We recommend doing a lot of research on the sites above before you dive straight in.

3)     If building your own, know what’s involved.

As we said, trading robots are complicated software that run on immense lines of code. If you want to build your own, you’ll need the necessary coding and programming skills.

It can take months to build a successful trading robot, and it will take a lot of trial and error, along with plenty of frustration.

If you have an idea for what you want but want someone else to build your automated trading robot without getting into too many complications, you can look at possible vendors like TradingCoders or Robotmaker that can build them for you.

Automatic trading robot builders give you a clean interface where you can build and edit your trading robot without learning complicated programming from scratch.

Regardless of how you choose to build your robot, you’ll still need a lot of market and technical analysis skills to succeed, especially if you are entrusting others to build something for you. Study well beforehand and know exactly what you’re getting into.

4)     You’re going to need a virtual private server.

Again, the markets in forex trading are open 24/5. Good trading opportunities come and go in the blink of an eye. The last thing you want to happen is missing a good trade because you suddenly had connectivity issues.

By using a virtual private server like the vendors from Fusion Markets Sponsored VPS (Virtual Private Server), your trading terminal can be connected 24/7 on a virtual machine. You’re basically using a constantly connected server to give you more reliable connectivity so that you are always online and not missing out on trades.

A good VPS will give you not only consistent connectivity but also low latency and fast executions. In forex trading and algorithmic trading, every millisecond counts, so you might as well use the best available tools out there.

Automated trading can be a lot of work at first. Still, it can also be very rewarding once you’ve established your own system. Hopefully, we’ve given you enough information to get you started on your very own automated forex trading journey.

That’s a question that has dogged professional investors for years.

Picking investments or trades to buy is one thing but when it comes to selling and in particular timing a sale its a whole different ball game.

In retail trading circles, this can cause us to snatch at profits and to run losing positions beyond the point where our money management rules tell us we should have closed the trade, with predictable results. It's a clear form of loss aversion (a cognitive bias that we should all be aware of) that stops us from making the rational call to close the trade.

Success in trading comes from running profits and cutting losses to grow our capital base and the ability to do this repeatedly, over as long a period as we can manage.

Having trouble selling isn’t confined to private investors, however. It’s a real issue among professional traders and money managers, unlike the science of buying or investing, which has been scrutinised to death by academics, analysts, traders and other financial markets participants. The science (or should that be the art of selling or divesting) has had precious little coverage in comparison.

The widely respected Barons magazine recently highlighted the asymmetry in professional money managers' selling ability and why professional can vastly underperform the market benchmark.

A research paper written by a mixture of US academics and specialists who measure investment performance or “skill “ as they like to call it, looked at 4 million trades made by money managers between 2000 and 2016 across 800 portfolios that on average contained more than USD 570 million of assets (aka "smart money").

The researchers found clear evidence of skill when entering trades or positions on the money managers' part, but it was a completely different story when it came to exiting trades.

In fact, the research found that the money managers were frankly shockingly poor when it came to timing sales, selecting what to sell and when to sell it. The researchers estimated that this lack of selling ability cost the managers returns of 2% per annum. Whilst that might not sound like much in insolation, if we consider the effects of compounding over decades that underperformance becomes hugely significant.]

That point is further reinforced by research by asset managers at JP Morgan Chase in 2014.

The fund managers looked at the lifecycle of 3000 US stocks dating back to 1980 what they found was striking as the quotes below show.

Risk of permanent impairment

“Using a universe of Russell 3000 companies since 1980, roughly 40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70%+ decline from their peak value.”

Negative lifetime returns vs the broad market.

“The return on the median stock since its inception vs an investment in the Russell 3000 Index was -54%. Two-thirds of all stocks underperformed the Russell 3000 Index, and for 40% of all stocks, their absolute returns were negative.”

Trades have a finite life cycle, and for the vast majority of stocks (or choose your asset class), they will often have their moment in the sun, get too close to it, and then fall away, never to return to those levels again. Identifying trades at their peak or going past their “sell-by dates" couldn’t be more important to an investment portfolio's performance.

In light of this knowledge, what can we do?

As with all the biases and psychological blackspots in trading that we discuss in our articles knowing and acknowledging that they exist half of the battle because we can modify behaviour accordingly once we have done that.

As traders in cash-settled margin products, we have an advantage over the money managers and asset owners described above. Simply because we are used to going both directions, e.g. shorting, on asset classes such as currencies and metals.

We take a 360 degree or holistic approach to the markets and the skills we use to decide to short USDJPY or the US 500 index can also be used to determine when a long position has run its course. Conversely, the skill set we use to identify a trading opportunity on the long side should also tell us when a short position is running out of steam.

Most traders we know of at Fusion do not hold their trades for more than a couple of days. Due to the power of leverage, they often don't need to since the gains can be enormous (but so can the losses we leave to run far longer than any positive P&L).

At the same time, why not make use of take profits or trailing stops to make sure you can squeeze that little bit extra out of the profit on the trade or set your levels and stick to them, without checking your phone or platform every minute of the day as we all do.

By adapting our mindset and the trading skills that we developed around opening trades, we can become better sellers or closers of positions and that will help us get the most out of the trades we make and the positions we take.

Or why we tend to rely heavily upon the first piece of information we receive.

Our minds can have an enormous impact on our trading and the returns that we generate from it. The way we think, act and behave when we trade or invest is at least as necessary if not more so than our trade selection, particularly in the kind of one-way markets that we have seen post the covid crash.  

A rising tide lifts all ships they say, and, in this case, the rising tide of the markets was provided by the printing presses of the major central banks along with the stimulus packages from national governments.

However, Central banks won't always be there to rescue us and we need to be aware of the kind of tricks that our brains can play on us if we are to avoid making the wrong trading decisions.

One of these tricks has a nautical moniker, anchoring, in which our brain subconsciously latches on to an idea, an assumption or a set of figures and uses that information in decision making, regardless of whether it's accurate or even relevant to the matter at hand.  

What's more, as humans, we tend to carry these impaired decision-making processes forward so that we end up using an inherently flawed system and often without realising it.

Behavioural psychologists have highlighted these tendencies in their experiments.  

In the case of anchoring American academic Professor Jay Edward Russo performed tests on 500 graduate students in which he asked them pairs of questions on history and general knowledge, but, unknown to the students, he had "salted "the questions with erroneous dates and figures.

The student's answers invariably reflected the incorrect numbers, which were varied across different groups of students within the experiment, highlighting a clear bias.

Professor Russo was effectively projecting those values into the student's subconscious, creating an anchor point.

When we become anchored to figures or a plan of action, we filter new information through that framework, which distorts our perception and decision making.  

This can even make us reluctant to change our plan or framework even if the situation calls for it.

There are few consequences if any when this happens in an experiment inside a university psychology department. Still, if it happens in the real world like in trading or investing, then there most certainly can be consequences.

Anchoring Bias has been described as one of the most robust effects in psychology, the fact that our decisions can be swayed by values not even relevant to the task (or trade) at hand.

Let's say we are negotiating the purchase of a house and I tell you it's worth $1,000,000, and I wouldn't sell it for less. You, as the willing buyer might have only had a price of $800,000 in your head. But all of a sudden, you now are anchored on my price. Not yours. The worst part is that the person who goes first in the negotiation tends to anchor the other party (remember this for the next salary negotiation you need to do with your boss!)

The studies even show that if you rolled a pair of two dice, gave the numbers (e.g. 10 and 19) to the study participant, that subconsciously, you would anchor them on these two numbers. Ask them what they would pay for a house, bottle of wine, or in one notorious study, the judges sentencing a criminal, these numbers are in and heavily influencing the participant's decisions whether they like it or not.

Anchoring always occurs in making our trading decisions, especially as it might help to explain our fixation with round numbers. E.g. EURUSD at 1.20. Gold at $2000/ounce. DJ30 - 30,000. Once we get hooked on the number, we always use it as a reference point in future, probably because it "feels right".  

Let's say in the past you might have successfully gone long EURUSD at 1.20 earlier in the year, and now whenever it comes back to that number, you will buy it again (the same thing happened to EURUSD at 1.10). You can't explain it, but you had past success with that number and you will gravitate towards it without understanding why.

Take a moment to consider some key support and resistance levels on your favourite instruments. Are they round numbers too? Why might that be? Could it be because people are anchored at Gold at $1900? And that every man and his dog has placed their buy orders at that level because it's "good value" or has spent time around that level in the past? Remember that the market is driven by sentiment and agreed upon narratives. Think what else could the crowd be anchored on that might be to your advantage knowing what you know now.

How do we avoid being anchored? 

Given that we don't completely understand the processes that cause anchoring to happen in the first place, we are unlikely to avoid it entirely.  

However, by being aware of its existence, we can revisit and retest our assumptions when making important decisions, to ensure that we are acting rationally and basing our decision on the situation at hand, not irrelevant inputs.

Perhaps the best way to avoid anchoring in trading is to treat every trade as an individual event and to judge a trading opportunity on its current merits. By doing this, you have a better chance to ignore any reference or prior interactions you have had with the instrument you are trading. It won't be easy to do at first, but it could prove to be a valuable discipline over time. As mentioned, this is crucial to comprehend for putting your stops and limits around key support and resistance levels.

Think about a time you have been fixated on a number. Was it buying a house? A pair of shoes? Trading? Now think whether that number could have been influenced by someone else, e.g. the seller, the shoe store etc.

Anchoring can certainly also play a part in other hidden biases and behaviours such as loss aversion (e.g. not wanting to close your open losing trade).

The next time that you are about to trade, take time to think about why you are fixated with that number for entering and exiting the trade, and how you reached the decision to pull the trigger. A few moments of reflection might make all the difference.

In trading, as in life, we are faced with the need to assess complex situations and quickly make judgements or decisions. And in both cases, we can’t be certain what the outcome of those snap decisions will be. Though we have to deal with the consequences regardless, even if they don’t reveal themselves for some time.

I wonder how many of us look back at the choices we made and judge them solely by the outcome they achieved, be that good or bad, rather than looking at how we got to that endpoint?

Behavioural psychologists believe that if we look at events purely in terms of their results, we are under the influence of outcome bias and as such we are likely to have a flawed view on risk and reward.

That outlook has been famously summed up in the phrase “picking up dimes in front of a steam roller” which has been variously attributed to Nassim Taleb and or economists Martin Wolf/John Kay.

Whoever coined the term (no pun intended) got it just right, because if you are picking up those coins then yes you are acquiring money, but you can only afford to slip up once and then it will be game over, and in a very messy way.

Another renowned economist, John Maynard Keynes, wrote on the subject of risk-reward and outcomes, just over 100 hundred years ago, in his treatise on probability.

Where Keynes thinking differed from traditional schools of thought was that he believed that an event could be, what he called, objectively probable, even if it didn’t actually take place. And that it would remain so even if you were looking back at events at a future point in time.

For Keynes, it was more important to be rational in your decision making than to be right.

Keynes of course also famously said that “the markets can remain irrational for far longer than you can remain solvent “  

That is one of my favourite quotes on investing. It neatly sums up the practicalities of being rational versus being right, as far as a trader is concerned - Being right doesn’t necessarily make you money and in fact, even if you are right waiting for that to be proven could cost you a fortune.

Whereas being rational or pragmatic, and acknowledging that the market is “directionally right “ but for the wrong reasons (which is usually the sheer weight of money) is one thing. But then trading with the market until the point when the crowd realises their folly, is likely to be a more profitable approach in the long term.

After all, by adopting this approach you don’t have to time the market at all instead you just need to watch for the points at which the crowd turns. And to that, we can use momentum and sentiment indicators, which you can set up in advance.

In short, when it comes to trading at least, the process is more important than the outcome.

The British military has a saying which runs as follows: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.

As a trader it’s hard to fault the logic in that statement, because if we believe that there is a symmetry between risk and reward, inputs and outputs, effort and results, and in trading where there must be a loser to offset every winner, why wouldn't you believe that?

Then if we don't prepare properly for each trade we make; we are not giving ourselves the best possible chance of making money.

We often say that a systemised approach to trading is the best one to adopt. What we mean is that we should have a framework of rules that we follow in each trade we make.

And we don't let our hearts rule our head or worst of all let our egos’ fools us into thinking that we have some special insight our secret trading sauce. Because in 99.9 times out of a hundred that won't be even remotely true.

Talent and luck will carry you only so far and many a sportsperson has built a successful career by recognising their own abilities and limitations, and then working hard to improve their technique and approach.

And in turn in recognising the weaknesses in their opponents game, which they can then exploit.

The opponents may still score against them but if they are reducing the rate at which they can score then they are doing something right, and they are slanting the odds of a positive outcome in their favour.

In trading, you won't win every contest but if you win more than you lose and have bigger wins and smaller loses, then, over the long term you will definitely come out on top.

A wonderful client of ours named Jimmy from up north in Indonesia wanted to learn a little more information about the sentiment tools that we have on offer.  We love helping traders grow and your feedback so figured it deserved its own post.

Because the sentiment is based on advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP), an advanced form of Artificial Intelligence, we know it might seem daunting to look at on first glance, so hopefully, you find the below Q&A interesting.  

What is the sentiment chart telling me? Is there any significance to the “wave” itself?  

The wave line is the sentiment score. The wave effect was created to show that contrary to prices on the particular asset class, the sentiment is not a precise measure. It is more a proxy than anything else.  
 

What is the sentiment score? How is that calculated?  

The machine learning model creates a sentiment score by scouring all of the words in the sources selected (e.g. nouns, pronouns, adjectives) within the articles it scans each day. In a simplified way, it is the difference of the score of the positive words (e.g. good, very good, great) minus the score of the negative words (e.g. bad, very bad, awful) embedded within the article.  

The calculation is made on a 24h rolling window with a recalculation latency of 15 minutes.  

The usefulness of the current sentiment the score is relatively short term (1-3 weeks).  

What is the subjectivity score? How did it arrive at this number? What happens if it goes higher or lower?  

The subjectivity is calculated on the difference between the factual words and the emotional words embedded within an article. If there are a lot of words that fall into the “fear” lexicon for instance compared to factual observation, then the gauge will be more inclined towards subjectivity or irrationality. At 0% the gauge would tell you there is no irrationality from the crowd and any article published is based on factual elements. If the gauge is above 50% and close to 100%, it means the crowd is a bit irrational about the asset and the price of the asset is not a reflection of its fundamental value. This is a great tool to detect bubbles in asset classes like equities.  

What is the confidence index?  

The confidence index is a relative index. It looks at the history of the volume of news and will scan over a period of 24 hours. If the volume of news is greater than the average of news published over the last 7 days, it would give you an indication about the quality of the sentiment score and how much trust you should have on it. e.g. if the sentient score is very positive but the confidence is low, you should be sceptical of the sentiment. In summary, the more sources and the more information, the more accurate the AI will be in providing its level of confidence.  

That’s a good question and is one that was posed by a man with many years of experience in the markets, Charley Ellis. Ellis, after a stint on Wall Street, founded Greenwich Associates in 1972 which grew into one of the world's most respected research houses. He said:

“Go to a continuous-process factory sometime — a chemical plant, a cookie manufacturer, a place that makes toothpaste. Everything is perfectly repetitive, automated, exactly in place. If you find anything interesting, you’ve found something wrong.

Investing is a continuous process, too; it isn’t supposed to be interesting. It’s a responsibility. If you go to the stock market because you want excitement, then sooner or later you will lose. Everyone who thinks the stock market is a game loses — everyone, to the last man, woman and child.

So, the purpose of an investment policy is simply to ensure that your continuous process never breaks down...

Benign neglect is the secret to long-term investing success. If you change your investment policy, you are likely to be wrong; if you change it with a sense of urgency, you’re guaranteed to be wrong.”

There is a lot of sense in those comments after all the key to successful trading is finding a system, trading style or approach that works for you, and does so consistently.

Developing or creating that approach gives you your edge, which is something that every trader needs if they are to succeed and grow their capital long term. Creating a viable trading strategy or trading edge is the exact opposite to the random and emotional trading that sees many new and aspiring traders come to grief early on their career.

When we read about great traders, we often wonder what makes them different to you and me and what it would take to follow in their footsteps. Let’s be honest we probably aren’t going to be the next George Soros, Ray Dalio or Jim Simons. However, what we can do is to emulate their systematic approach to the markets.

Systemising your trading is about creating a set of rules which describe your trading approach, the opportunities you look for, and the risk management ratios you apply.

Once you have written these down, you have effectively created your trading plan, and what’s more, you have laid the groundwork for creating an algorithmic strategy.

An algorithm or algo is just a set of rules that a computer can follow and execute. Of course, nearly all trading today is conducted electronically. Yet, as much as 70% of that business employs algorithms to improve trading efficiency, execution quality and anonymity. The latter can be beneficial in retaining your trading edge and not seeing it arbitraged away.

A report by Business Wire predicts that Algorithmic trading will experience a compounded annual growth rate or CAGR of 10% per anum between 2018-2026. Two years into that period, and there is no suggestion that the analysis is wrong.

Using a rules-based system to decide when you should buy and sell is the key to maximising your profitability. And perhaps just as importantly, minimising your losses. Leaving those decisions to our emotional selves is not a viable option for long term trading success.

As we have discussed before, our psyche contains biases, emotional responses and short cuts that are not suited to trading and they can actually hinder the process. It’s far better to use a systematic rules-based approach that can help us run winners and cut losses rather than the other way around.

To take your trading to the next level, you need to ask yourself a question, and that is...

Have you developed a system, or are you just having a punt?

Do you follow a set of trading rules and stick to them each time you trade? Think about your trade sizes, risk-reward ratios, the use and placement of stop losses. Consider the average profitability of your trades and how often and by how much do the results deviate from that average?

Much of this data will, of course, be available to your in trade history and statements that’s one of the great benefits of electronic trading. It should be possible to identify the products you trade well and the time of day (your peak). Not to mention those times you switch gears and try to trade something you’ve never done before. E.g. an FX Trader dabbling into commodities because it’s “hot”.

A very effective way to systemise your trading and improve its efficiency is not to trade in the instruments, and at the times of day that you do poorly on. And instead, focus on the most profitable areas of your trading. You will be amazed at just how much difference that simple change could make.

Finally, ask yourself, are you getting too excited about your trading and the individual positions that you take? Do you wake up in the middle of the night dreaming about your positions or checking them? If you are, then you are probably taking too much risk.

You see a trader should largely ambivalent about individual positions, because if he or she has systemised their process, then trades will be a bit like riding the tube in London, that is, another one will be along in a minute.

What will or should be of concern to them, however, is whether they are making the most out of every trade that comes by. Better to be focused on the process and the system and not the individual trade outcomes. Transitioning from one way of thinking and approach to the other will very much put on the right route for trading success.

That's just the way it is
Things will never be the same
That's just the way it is
...Some things will never change

2pac - Changes

In modern life, our focus is often on change. We quickly assess something as either Good changes or bad changes.

Change is also the lifeblood of the financial markets which would, of course, be pretty dull if everything remained static and prices never moved.

However, the opposite is true in these days of computerised and algorithmic trading.

Prices are rarely static and fluctuate throughout the trading day, which blends seamlessly into the next business day across the working week, which may eventually extend into the weekend as well, but I digress.

As much as our lives are driven by or focused on changes, they are underpinned by many constants, things that don’t change over time no matter how much the world and our everyday lives do.

Information

One of the constants today is information, inside thirty years, the internet and world wide web have become an integral part of our lives. To the extent that we can overload ourselves with information on almost any subject imaginable in seconds.

However, there is a big difference between having that information at our fingertips and understanding a subject or topic thoroughly, and it's very easy to conflate one with the other.

You can feel like an expert when in fact you may have missed the point entirely. Reading between the lines is often what's most important, and we need to recognise that we don't know as much we think we do and be comfortable with reconciling ourselves to that.

In trading, even in the information age, we can only ever hope to see a fraction of the big picture. The only comfort is it's exactly the same for almost everybody else.

If you think you really can understand the exact reason the market has gone up or down, think again. The financial media will say the market went up or down for the same reason. Could they ever admin something like: “There’s no story we could slap on this for why the market went up today. It just did”. No.

Greed and fear

Another constant in trading is the role of Greed and Fear these are the two primary drivers of investor behaviour, particularly when we are looking at that in aggregate.

That is, when we consider the trading crowd. The crowd has always been with us, journalist Charles Mackay wrote about them in his 1841 work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.

In the book, Mackay looked back to events in 1720, the South Sea bubble, and the Dutch Tulip mania of 1637, to highlight just how crowd behaviour, driven initially by greed and subsequently by fear, leads to the creation and bursting of investment/trading bubbles. If those bubbles become big enough then they can not only affect the markets but also the real economy too.

Speculation is as old as the hills and financial crises are nothing new. In fact, in modern times they have become cyclical, occurring around once every 10 years or so, for example, we had the 1987 crash, the Russian default and Asian currency crisis of 1998 and the subsequent dot com crash. That was followed in turn by the Credit Crunch and Global Financial Crisis of 2007/8 and more recently the COVID crash.

A decade is enough time for a new generation of traders to enter a market and each new generation believes that “this time it’s different” a phrase which is often described as being the four most dangerous words in trading.

Traders make the same mistakes and fall foul of the same biases and behaviour as their forebears did. It’s just that now there are scientific labels for it (we do love to put a label on something).

If you read trading books like the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefevre (first published in 1923) you instantly recognise patterns of behaviour regularly seen among market participants today.

Too much risk

One of those behaviors is taking too much risk or over-trading, relative to your capital base. That's often brought about because markets move in one direction for an extended period. People climb on board the trend, and the longer it goes on the more they believe it won't end and the greedier they get.

They don't deliberately mean to do this but one of the characteristics of bubble behaviour, because that's what this is, is the participants inability to tell that they are in a bubble. The narrative simply changes. When you’re inside the bubble you will cut off contact with or ignore those on the outside looking in or who have a different viewpoint or opinion.

Market aphorisms or sayings are grounded in the truth and experience of history they may sound quaint, but they are there to teach us a lesson, and none more so than

 “It's only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked”

In this case, the tide going out is the market changing direction and those swimming naked are the overleveraged and overlong bulls in the bubble. Markets crash because the trading crowd wakes up to the existence of the bubble simultaneously, and everyone heads for the exit at the same time, as greed turns into fear.

A good trader knows not to outstay their welcome, and that it is always better to leave the party before the end.

We’re not saying that markets don’t change and evolve over time and that a strategy you use will work forever, but the same fundamental principles like we’ve tried to highlight such as greed and fear never will.  Some things will never change.

Hi Traders,

By popular demand, we wanted to share our top five most used tools and features that are provided to you for free in our client area.

These are a bit like my Top Five Tools for Traders, but these are a little different as they're all internal rather than other websites or companies. 

Here are 5 of the most popular tools (in order) our clients are loving:

#1 - Analyst Views by Trading Central. This is my personal favourite. You can view it in the hub now, download it and use it as an indicator on MT4 desktop (in "Downloads on Hub) or visit your "News" tab in MT4 where it's constantly updated too.

#2 - The Economic Calendar is a must too. Are you using this already? If you're trading and don't know what announcements are coming up, you could easily be blown away by a big move and have no idea why. My favourite is that it will show you the historical price impact of previous announcements. You can even save the future events as a calendar invite!

#3 - News Tab - Knowledge is power. You know that already. You might already have your own news sources which are cool, but with Fusion's news tab, you can create a personalised feed (e.g. only show me EURUSD) or see what's most popular for others. Don't be an uninformed trader.

#4 - Sentiment - I love the idea of knowing what the crowd is bullish or bearish on. What are people talking about? Why are they talking about it? Check out our post on why this is important.

#5 - Technical insight is excellent if you'd like to go into a deeper dive on technical analysis on Forex and Indices. I prefer these charts over MT4 truth be told and want to know short, medium and long term outlook for each trade I'm considering.

That's it for now. We've built these for you and believe they'll truly help you excel as a trader.

#6 – Historical and Live Spreads Tool - with this tool, you can see how spreads have fluctuated over time, as well as the current live spreads. This information can be incredibly valuable in helping you make informed decisions about when to enter and exit trades. No more surprises, no more hidden fees – just transparent, competitive pricing. Read our blog post to learn how spreads actually affect your trading costs. 

Much of what we write about in these articles is about the mindset and behaviour of traders and trading. The reason for this is quite straight forward; it's because it's the decisions that we make and take that will ultimately determine how we perform as traders.

Yes, of course, price changes in the markets will play their part but, in the end, it's our decision whether to get involved or not and that determines how much capital we commit to trade, how long we hold the position for, and what the ultimate outcome of the trade will be.

Hidden costs

When we examine the costs of trading, we tend to focus on commissions and spreads and our PnL, but there are other costs, costs that we don't consider when really, we should.

These are the costs of inactivity and indecision, the costs of listening to outside influences more than to your own inner feelings and intuition. They are the costs of missing out, what economists call "opportunity costs".

Self-doubt among traders is not unusual, and in truth, it's better to exercise a degree of caution than to be 100% confident about everything you do. Hubris has been the downfall of many traders, and we certainly advocate being prudent with your risk. That said, It's always worth testing your thinking and assumptions and checking that they are still valid before you trade.

The problem comes when you start to talk yourself out of the trade entirely. After all, trading is a risk and reward business. There can be no profit without the possibility of loss.

A trader's job is to try and ensure that the risk that they take is in proportion to the potential rewards they could make. Not taking that risk could be limiting your potential as a trader which in turn may be limiting your rewards or returns.

Moments of clarity

Sometimes as a trader or investor, you will enjoy a moment of clarity, a moment of pure thought and insight, in which you can see exactly how a market setup or situation will playout. Moments when you just know you are right

If that moment of clarity coincides with significant moves in the markets, then that can be a very valuable situation indeed. But only if you act on it.

Allow me to tell you a personal story. During the great 2020 downturn in oil (where a Saudi/Russia price war caused prices to go NEGATIVE), I found myself holding oil from $30 a barrel and riding it all the way down watching in sheer horror. I kept buying the dip. How much lower could it go, I thought? I ignored every rule and everything I've written in the past about this. I didn't put a stop loss on. I told myself it was a long-term trade that I would stay in forever. Prices surely couldn't go below $20. That's madness. Then… The unthinkable happened in the futures price – it went negative.

Thankfully, Fusion's price didn't go negative (we use Spot Crude oil) but with spot prices at $15, I was sitting watching Netflix on my couch, and my heart raced as I saw it go down like World War III just started. The news sites told me nothing new had happened (funny how we search for any narrative to make sense of it all). Here it went. $14. $12. $11. Back to $12. Back to $11. $10. $9. Thoughtful me knew these prices were unsustainable. I told myself I would hold until it hit $0 if it had to. My account was down 70%. I'd never suffered such steep losses. I felt sick. I then couldn't sleep. I woke up, and it was still down a lot but had recovered from $7.

Watch out for the narratives.

I started to read more about what others were saying. What the hell was going on? Would this happen again? Yes, there was nowhere to store the oil (so the narrative went) but surely rationality would prevail. Seriously, how could you have negative prices? It was impossible to find anyone bullish in the media or otherwise. People assume if something just happened, it will occur again Goldman came out and said to expect more negative pricing. But I just couldn't believe it was so cheap. I knew it was time to buy more!

But then I didn't buy it. I waited for another opportunity for when I knew "the worst was over" I was so sure things would bounce back, but I didn't have the guts to buy one more time, and the opportunity passed me by forever. I let the external narrative cloud my previous judgement. But I was just so worried I couldn't think properly. Within days, it had doubled back to $15 a barrel. Then it was $20 a week later. At the time of writing it is $40 a barrel. By the time you read this, it might be $60 a barrel. Who knows? All I knew was fear and too much outside influence completely warped my view, and I failed. I just wanted to survive the calamity. While I survived to write you this, I did not do as well as I could have.

Self-belief

People often talk about having the courage of their convictions, but in trading, it's not really about courage, it's about belief, belief in yourself and your ideas and be prepared to back them, rather than talking yourself out of them, or allowing yourself to be talked out of them by others.

We all like to take advice and read and hear the opinions of so-called experts. But the absolute truth is that nobody really knows what going to happen next in the markets.

For example, nobody was predicting that an 11-year bull market in equities was going to end and end so abruptly in Q1 2020. Or that US unemployment would spiral to +14.7% in a single month.

Do not get me started on the rebound from the lows in March. To be bullish on the markets in April and May of 2020 was to look like you had lost your mind given the narratives surrounding COVID.

So-called "market legends" like Druckenmiller and Buffett told everyone it was not the time to buy. Sadly, so many would have listened.

Let's not forget Yogi Berra's famous saying "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future" which is why it's best to take these so-called forecasts with a grain of salt. The best that any expert can do is to make a prediction or forecast about the future. And the longer the time frame that the forecast is over, or the more unusual the circumstances under which it is made, then the more significant the room for error and the higher the chance that they are simply wrong.

Loss aversion

As humans, we are subject to subconscious emotional biases that can cloud our decision making. One such bias is loss aversion.

Loss aversion can hamper a trader in two distinct ways. It's most commonly associated with the practice of running losses, ignoring stops and breaking money management rules when a trader can't or won't accept that they were wrong and refused to close a losing position.

The other way that loss aversion can muddy the waters is in our initial decision making. You see as species we are poor judges of risk and reward; we don't calculate probabilities very well, and the upshot of this is that we do not like uncertainty.

To the extent that when we are faced with situations that have a series of potential outcomes, we tend to favour the outcome with the highest degree of certainty. Even if that outcome is the least beneficial to us financially. Which, of course, is the exact opposite of the risk versus reward culture that we spoke about earlier.

Fortune favours the bold.

Though we might not like to admit it, our subconscious is often trying to talk us out of taking risks. Outside influences from the media, fear, our aversion to loss and a preference for certainty may often be our worst enemy as traders.

As Howard Marks said, "If you're doing the same thing as everyone else, how do you expect to outperform them"?

There have been several once in a generation trading opportunities over the last six months. I wonder how many of us were bold enough to seize the day and take advantage?

We believe that wherever possible, we should remove emotions from our trading psychology and try to act logically and systematically when making trading decisions. That’s because there are facets of our emotional selves that are just no good when it comes to making money. Impulses that encourage us to snatch at profits, make rash trades and run losses can be detrimental to our wealth in the same way that running out into a stream of moving traffic could be very detrimental to our health. We could go so far as to say that there is no room for sentiment at all in trading, but if we said that we wouldn’t be entirely correct. Because while it’s true that we want to remove sentiment and emotion from our own trading, we should be quite happy to take advantage of other people’s sentiments.

Picking the right wave

Trading is effectively a three-way competition. First, you compete with yourself and your psyche, of course, you also compete with the market in the same way that a surfer competes with the ocean. That is reading the changes in the swell and the wind in order to pick to the right waves. However, you are also competing with other traders, because in forex for every winner there is a loser, and to make money, you need to try to ensure that other traders and not you are on the losing side, more often than not. To succeed, we need to follow a rules-based trading strategy that helps us back only the best trading opportunities that the market presents to us. We also need to try and develop an edge over our competition, that is other traders.

Of course, we don’t and can’t know who these other traders are, and even if we did it wouldn’t do us much good, because there are millions of them spread out across the globe trading away at any one time. However, the fact that there are so many competitors out there can work in our favour. Why? Because a crowd that big leaves a trail that we can follow and that can provide us with an edge.

Tracking the markets thinking

One of the methods that we can use to gauge what the rest of the market is thinking and doing is to look at what they are buying, selling and saying. That is measuring the sentiment towards the markets, and doing that in aggregate.

There are several ways in which we can do this. For example, we could study the weekly Commitment of Traders reports that are produced by the US CFTC which track changes in positioning in listed futures contracts (including FX majors) among key investor and trading groups. However, these reports are released three days in arrears, late on Friday afternoon in the USA. What’s more, they are not exactly user friendly in terms of their layout or the way that the data is presented or in the ease of interpretation (the CFTC is not known for its beautiful charts!).

Perhaps a more simplistic way to track trader sentiment is to look at what’s happening to the prices of safe-haven assets such as gold, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and government bonds. If these instruments are rising in price, then that’s a sign of Risk-Off sentiment among traders.

If those safe-haven assets are strengthening when risk assets such as equities and Emerging Market currencies like the South African rand, Brazilian real and Turkish lira etc. are weakening, then you will know it’s risk-off. Of course, if we see risk assets appreciating while safe-havens are falling in price, that’s an indicator of Risk-On sentiment among market participants.

However, there are quite a few items to monitor the strategy outlined above. Since we are trying to gauge the aggregate sentiment of the crowd, it would be good if we had an indicator to gauge sentiment across a wide range of assets as well.

True we could try to use the VIX and other volatility indices, volatility is a measure of the rate and severity of price changes within an instrument or market. It tends to rise sharply as markets become fearful and trend lower when fear subsides and greed re-asserts itself. But once again, this would mean monitoring multiple items from different sources, to which we may have varying degrees of access.

A single gauge of sentiment?

Instead, what if we had one indicator that could tell us what others in the markets were thinking?

Fusion Markets has partnered up with some very talented engineers to simplify this even further.

Using cutting-edge artificial intelligence techniques known as Natural Language Processing (NLP), we can use machines to take in hundreds of thousands of data points across the web to gauge sentiment.

Are people talking about the Aussie dollar? What are they saying exactly? Are they positive or negative?

What about Gold? Is the crowd bullish or bearish?

To do this, yourself (e.g. scour hundreds of thousands of sources across the web) would be impossible. That’s why we always say there’s never been a more exciting time to be a trader (at least with Fusion anyway) and have these tools available that were previously only available to the world’s best hedge funds and asset managers.

We’ll leave it to you as to whether or not the crowd thinking it is highly bullish is a good signal to trade or a bad one and the strategy here (if you’ve read our views previously, you will know the answer!). Still, while it is not the holy grail as a single strategy, we believe this is a handy weapon to add to your arsenal to get an edge over others.

New and novice traders spend a lot of their time worrying about how they will recognise and spot trading opportunities as they occur, and what will be the best way to exploit them when they do. They can spend hours researching and reading, looking at charts and trying to apply technical or fundamental analysis to the current market setups.

That investment of time and effort on their part is commendable, but all too often it's time and effort wasted!

It may seem harsh to say that, but here at Fusion Markets, we believe in telling it like it is.

We say that it's time and effort wasted because, despite all the research, reading and studying of charts, many newbie traders will still put the wrong trade on and more to the point not realise they are doing so.

Driven by sentiment

Financial markets are primarily driven by sentiment and momentum, which itself is created by crowd behaviour. That's something that was identified and put into print as long ago as 1841 and though the technology of trading has changed considerably in the intervening 179 years, the psychology of trading hasn't. 

We could go as far as to argue that while there is no longer a physical crowd on a trading floor or exchange these days, there is, in fact, a much bigger crowd whose voice and actions are amplified by modern communications. Real-time information through social media, for example, can enable the instantaneous exchange of information, prices and views across the globe.

The transfer of information 

There have always been communication channels between markets and their end customers, of course. But it is the speed of modern networks that differentiates today's trading from what went before.

Flags and telescopes on high towers, carrier pigeons and messengers all played their part in the transfer of information. Those methods were superseded by the telegraph, which in turn was replaced, at least partly by the telephone. The internet, the world wide web and the rise of mobile telecoms have ushered in a new age of high-speed data that can reach almost any corner of the globe, at the same time.

The net effect of all this is that the trading crowd is much larger, better informed and able to act and react much quicker than ever before.

Weight of money 

In trading, the majority rules, in that markets move in the direction that has the most impetus. If most of the crowd is bullish, then demand outweighs supply and prices will rise until fresh supply (sellers) are attracted into the market. This is why people go on about what the “Smart money” is doing. While we don’t necessarily agree with them being “smarter”, they certainly have more capital!

Conversely, if supply outweighs demand, that is there are more sellers than buyers to satisfy them, then prices will fall as new buyers are drawn into the market.

If these price changes persist for any length of time, they form what is known as a trend which is nothing more than a series of continuous, repetitive movements in price.

It's not only modern communications that have amplified crowd behaviour and sentiment.

The rise of tracker funds, ETFs and other passive investment vehicles have also played a role. These types of investment don't try to beat the market. Instead, they aim to match it.

Trillions of dollars have flowed into these trackers over the last decade and a half, and indeed you could argue that they have become so successful and so large that ETFs are now capable of creating the market's trends rather than just following them.

In fact, the world's largest fund manager is also one of the world's biggest passive investors (Blackrock).

Passive FX trading  

The influence of tracker funds is not as prominent in FX, as it is in say, equities or bonds; however, the principles are the same. The crowd dictates the trends in the markets and those trends tend to stay in place until new information emerges and cause a change in sentiment, which in turn can cause a change in those market trends.

Now the big mistake on the part of newbie traders that we mentioned at the start of the article was putting on the wrong trade, typically by opposing the prevailing trends in the markets.

The more entrenched the trend, the more likely new traders, are to try and oppose it. Ever heard the saying “trying to catch a falling knife”?

How can we become passive traders?

The most obvious way to be a passive trader is to follow the existing trends in the FX market, which occur in even the most widely traded pairs. Nevertheless, here's a few ways you can become more passive. 

For example, EURUSD trended lower for almost two years between February 2018 and February 2020. You didn't have to stay short of the rate (that is, have sold the Euro and bought the Dollar) for two years to benefit from that move. As long as that downtrend was in place, it was pointing you in the direction of least resistance and with that being the case why would you oppose it?

1) Check your charts.

Sometimes you will be able to follow existing trends, but there will be other times when individual instruments or markets are ranging or moving sideways, checking your charts and knowing your levels can aid you here.

A chart can speak a thousand words. It contains loads of useful information that's conveyed visually to the viewer. Get to know where the key support and resistances (watch for breakouts too) are situated over daily or weekly timescales; shorter-term charts are too noisy (I’m looking at you, 5-minute chart!).

2) Know where key levels and moving averages are.

The way that price reacts when it meets moving averages, or support and resistance can dictate the direction of the next trend. Knowing when and where this can happen will put you on alert to "jump" in once a new trend is confirmed. Fusion puts out trade ideas and analysis on Telegram and Facebook.

3) Look for clues about trends in sentiment tools

Tools that track what traders are thinking and doing are incredibly useful.

Given what we said above about retail traders opposing market trends, the passive FX trader uses these sentiment reports as reverse indicators.

We quite like FX Blue’s sentiment indicators which you can find here

The rule of thumb is that the more biased retail trader sentiment is in an instrument, the more likely that the market will move in the opposite direction.

A passive trader wouldn't preempt that move, but they would be prepared for it when it happens, or join it if it's already begun. 

After all, one of the most famous quotes in the markets is "the trend is your friend"... So don't fight it.  

When you start to learn about trading, you'll come across plenty of material about minimising risk and money management, because they're two of the most critical areas of the business. 

Learning to manage risk and preserve trading capital is fundamental to a successful trading journey. 

One area the literature focuses on is the use of stop losses. A stop loss is simply a price level beyond which you choose not to run an unprofitable or losing trade.

But for me, stop losses are one of the most misunderstood tools in a trader's arsenal, and I wanted to offer a different perspective than what is usually found in the research.  

I'll give you a hint; it's in the name!

Knowing your risk

It's important to know the risk you are taking on any given trade, this can be calculated by multiplying the distance of your stop loss, from the entry-level of your trade, by the notional size of your trade.  

In theory, this simple calculation determines the maximum risk or loss that you face on a given trade. I say in theory because that risk figure is not cast in stone.  

Firstly, if the stop loss you use on a trade is just a mental one, i.e. a figure that you have chosen, (but will watch rather than attach to an order), then it will be down to you to monitor price action and trade it. That's a sure recipe for looking like a maniac checking your platform or mobile app every second you get.

Systemise your process

Rather than rely on them being in front of the screen to close a trade (which in a 24/5 market is not that realistic), many traders will place a stop loss to an open position. This is essentially creating an instruction to close the position should the price of the underlying instrument reach a pre-set level.

In doing so, traders are systemising this part of their trading. On the face of it, that sounds like a good idea doesn't it? 

But what if that automated stop loss level was defining the loss you make on a trade and eating away at your trading capital, not protecting it?  

The use of a stop loss should be what its name suggests – the prevention of a loss, not the realisation of losses as 90% of traders currently use their SL for.  

Crowding together

Here's the thing. Traders of all sizes fall foul of "clustering" which means they place their stop losses in the same areas, at the same time.  

For example, at or around round numbers, (e.g. USDJPY 110) just above or just below a moving average or indeed close by the same support or resistance levels everyone else is keenly watching.  

The market is aware of this behaviour and is often on the lookout for these clusters of stop losses. When they are, it's known as a stop hunt.  

But what exactly does that mean? 

Well, a big bank (a price "Maker") might see on their books that they have a cluster of orders around 1.10 on EURUSD, and then be willing to commit large sums of capital to "hunting down" that stop loss level. They do this by moving the underlying price towards it, in a selfish way, to reward themselves, rather than because of natural order flow (and they wonder why they have bad reputations!).  

As an aside, a broker such as Fusion Markets, that typically services "retail" clients, e.g. mum and dad investors, often get accused of doing the same thing, despite the fact we are a price "Taker" not a price "Maker", and have no control over the prices coming through to you, as a client.  

Think about it if the market can find these groups of stop losses and trigger them, then that's easy money for the banks and traders who have the opposing view and positions.  

Remember that in FX trading there is a winner for every loser and vice versa. A successful trader endeavour's to be on the winning side of that relationship more often than not.

A different approach to stop losses

Are we saying then that you should trade without a stop loss? No, we are not! 

But what if we took a different approach to stop loss placement? Instead of lining up to provide a free lunch for the banks, what if we placed our stop losses above our entry price rather than below it?   

Of course, that means that we'd have to risk-manage our trades in a different way.

For example, employing less leverage and taking smaller positions relative to our account size. But that is really what we should be doing anyway. And of course, we would have to monitor performance closely in a trade's early stages, as we should.  

However, if the trade we have taken is the correct one, then our position will soon be on-side, and once we have a buffer between the current price and our entry-level. Then, our stop loss can be locking in profits rather than minimising (or realisation of) our losses.  

Trailing a stop-loss behind a profitable position is something of a holy grail in trading it's often talked about, but rarely seen in the markets. By not acting like the crowd, maybe we can turn the tables on the stop hunters.  

What are you waiting for? Why not stop your losses in the way they're supposed to be stopped? 

Part II – Hidden Biases in your trading

In Part One, we covered Confirmation bias, recency bias, the endowment effect, the groupthink bias and the gambler’s fallacy.

Today we’ll cover our final five, and I’ll provide you with a handy checklist so you can take 60 seconds and potentially stop yourself from rushing into something catastrophic.

6)    Hindsight bias

You could also call this one the “I knew it all along” effect. How many times have you heard someone say those words in life (not to mention in trading)?

I just knew Euro would fall after the ECB meeting.

Argh, I meant to go long on gold but didn’t get time. I knew it was going up.

We tend to believe that (of course much later than the event itself) that the onset of a past event was entirely predictable and obvious, whereas during the event we were not able to predict it.

Due to another bias (which we will not cover today) called “narrative bias” we tend to want to assign a narrative or a “story” to an event that allows us to believe that events are predictable and that we can somewhat predict or control the future. It allows us to try to make sense of the world around us.

How to overcome: Just stop pretending like you knew what was going to happen. If you didn’t put skin in the game, then you didn’t think it was going to happen!

7)    Overconfidence effect

Overconfidence as a trader allows us to believe that we are superior in our trading, which ultimately leads to hubris and poor decision making.

Whether it’s overconfidence on when to trade, what to trade (telling ourselves “sure I could normally trade AUDUSD, but why couldn’t I also be good at trading the South African rand?”) and how to trade a certain product.

We trade larger than we should, hold losers for longer than we should, relax our own risk management policy, become arrogant or complacent in our trading and this all leads to capital losses.

How to overcome: Ask yourself “What could I be wrong about” or “What makes me think I am far superior to all the others out there with this information”? The market will humble you eventually of course, but why not try to do it yourself before you shoot yourself in the foot?

8)    Anchoring

The first bit of information we hear is what we focus on.

If you ever need to negotiate with someone, you’ll be amazed at the power of anchoring with your first offer (Do try it sometime, just not with your friendly forex broker though ;-))

The same applies to trading. We hear a talking head on TV telling us about how the euro is overvalued and is heading for some drastic number that is streets away from today’s price. We can’t get that number out of our head even if we try.

Or let’s say we buy AUDUSD at .7100, close it at .7300 for a decent profit, happy days! The next week, it’s back at .7100 and we immediately are tempted to do the same again, because why not? It’s cheap again and we can repeat history. We rush into it, ignoring the technical break it’s just had or the negative sentiment on Australian Economic Data. We practically feel it’s a bargain at those levels.  

What do we do? The worst part is that we’re usually not even aware of how strong the influence is.

That’s the power of the anchor. We become attached to that information.  

How to overcome: This one is tough to overcome because studies show it can be so hidden in our subconscious without us knowing. Perhaps add to your trading checklist “Was this trade a result of an unknown anchor that I saw or heard?”

9) Consistency Bias

Like the sunk cost fallacy, we want to be consistent in our actions.

We’d hate for someone to say to us that we weren’t being fair or that last week we had said we’d do X and now had changed our minds.

Politicians do it all the time as they rigidly stick to a poor policy idea. They’d rather go down with the ship.

Traders are worse because our own desire to be consistent costs us money.

If I am known as a USD bear, and it’s rallying hard – I don’t want to look stupid or inconsistent. That’s why I keep staying bearish despite being 1000 pips from being right! It’ll come back we say. Everyone else is being stupid.

In 2009, 2010, 2011 and probably countless years since the financial crisis, people were always calling for the “double-dip” recession. I fell for it myself personally by believing them in 2009 and 2010 and staying too cautious when I should’ve thrown the house at buying stocks!

We want to feel in control. We want people to see our conviction, even if we’re wrong. Because this is a byproduct of confirmation bias, we’re not likely to seek disconfirming evidence of what we believe. We see what we want to see.

Why? Because sadly consistency is often associated with our intellectual and personal strength. Good traders should be seen as flexible. Open to the idea that they are probably wrong. Yet society thinks an inconsistent person is flaky, confused or a ‘flip-flopper’ on issues – even though we could all benefit from being open-minded to new ideas and opinions!

10) The Halo Effect

Last but not least - The halo effect is the final bias we’ll talk about today.

The halo effect means we let our overall impression of someone influence our thinking too greatly.

“But he’s so smart we say”

We idolise the opinions of the legendary hedge fund manager, Ray Dalio or the great investor of our time, Warren Buffet.

We see them on TV or in a Bloomberg article saying now is a buying opportunity or that it’s risk-off and we need to sell.

“If Buffet/Dalio/ is buying/selling now, I’ve gotta too,” we say in our head.

But how smart is that a strategy, really? What might he know that I don’t? What are his investment objectives versus mine? More important – how many times has he said this and actually been wrong?

We don’t know and we shouldn’t try to know. The halo effect blinds to sticking to our own plan and staying in our lane. The more we’re influenced by others, the harder trading becomes.

How to overcome: We must take the opinions of the so-called “Masters of the universe” with a grain of salt. They have different plans than we do. Information that we do or don’t have and so much more. Just because they’ve said this doesn’t make it come true. If only trading were that easy!

What do I do now?

OK, so I might have scared you. You are now jumping at shadows and questioning your own trading decisions, believing you have all these secret, hidden disadvantages that you didn’t have until 10 minutes ago.

Do not worry, biases can never be completely avoided. But we can work hard on challenging our opinions in order to make us more successful. Sometimes it’s just taking the time to stop and think.

To help you along the way, we’ve created a possible checklist for making better decisions in your trading.

So, stop, take a breath and ask yourself these 7 questions before you place your next trade.

What’s the rationale for taking this trade? List 3 for and 3 against.

How strong is the evidence behind my decision to trade?

What are the possible unknown unknowns?

Has the recency of information I’ve learned influenced my decision? If so, how much?

 Is this trade following the consensus of the crowd? If so, is that a good thing?

Did I hear this from a famous market commentator/investor? Why is that important?

 If none of questions 1-6 apply, then could any of the other biases above be at work?

Your first reaction as you read the subject was thinking: “Yeah, but I’m not biased”

Of course, that’s what you would say!

The biggest problem with biases is that we never think we have any.

Biases are what everyone else has.

What are they and why are they important?

Biases are like shortcuts for your brain. They can have an unusually large impact on how you make decisions in your everyday life, but particularly when it comes to your trading.

To put it simply, your brain has a way of conserving energy by making fast decisions or mental shortcuts in what is known as ‘heuristics’.

The problem is, we often don’t even know that we have them. Even if we know about them, when it comes to trading, we must work hard to challenge our reasoning behind making our decisions.

As common as these biases are, we specifically want to focus on what is called “cognitive” and “emotional” biases.

Because these are so crucial to your trading, we’ve split this guide in two. This is part one.
Biases have been studied across psychology, economics and now into the mainstream of what is called “behavioural” finance. In fact, Richard Thaler, a notable behavioural economist recently won the Nobel prize for his work on the topic!

The sad part is that I know more about this topic because of my own mistakes in trading and so I try to be hyper-aware of rushing into trading decisions without considering the biases below.

The million-dollar question becomes, how many of these have you been a victim of and what can you do to try to prevent them yourself?
 
1)     Confirmation bias

This one is a doozy and for me, the most important of all of them.

If you take nothing else from today, it should be an awareness of confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias means we tend to seek out information only that we agree with.

Ask yourself this question: How many times have you placed a trade then sat there and watched it go against you? Sure, this happens almost every time, but then how often have you then gone out and sought information, headlines or “expert” advice about that currency pair which tells you why you were right and to just stick with it?

I remember many years ago, when I first started trading, I placed a fairly large trade on oil (don’t ask why I made this trade. I had no idea what I was doing and it was too big for my account... Forgive me, I was just a beginner!) but as soon as it went against me I frantically typed “Oil” into Google, and just like that I was looking for any reason to support my original opinion on why oil was due to go through the roof.

To my joy, there was some analyst from ABC Fund manager comforting me with a view that supported my own opinion or perspective. They talked about an undersupply in the market and that oil was sure to go higher. It was 2 am and I was sitting in my lounge room by this stage as I watched my whole account go into jeopardy. This valuable advice that I sought helped to nurse me back to sleep.

I, of course, deviously chose not to click on any article that might tell me I was wrong – I only sought out the information I wanted to hear or see.

Let’s just say that the oil trade I placed went as well as a parachute made of concrete! (Oh and my account was completely wiped out!).

How to overcome it: Stop, ask yourself a question – What information could you be missing about the rationale for this trade? What do the opposing arguments and research say?

2)    Recency bias aka availability heuristic

The “recency bias” or “recency effect” essentially tells us that our recent experience can become the baseline for what is going to happen in the future.

This might mean our recent trade performance such as a recent win or loss impacting us heavily. It might also mean a certain piece of news or information that we recently heard forming the basis for our decision making.

This can have seriously dangerous consequences for us as traders as it undermines our ability to form an objective decision on a trade. Why? Because of our lazy brain only recalling recent information. Whether that’s on our most recent trade or information we found as a barometer for how the next trade will go.

Let’s say you had a losing trade whereby you promised you’d never risk such a great amount of your capital again. You might be a little shy and dial back the risk a bit too much, or you could be the opposite and think you’re George Soros, betting the whole house on the next trade since you just went so poorly on the last. Your thinking is this would get you back to where you were prior to your last trade.

The other way it can creep into your trading is through recent information impacting your decision on why to take a new trade. It might be that you see a brief news headline stating ABC bank’s research on “why the dollar is going to dive this week” earlier in the day and tend to argue with yourself later that night why you think it’s a good idea to follow that trade. I know what you might be thinking: “It’s just a headline… I’d never let this happen to me”. However, our brain likes to take shortcuts to conserve energy. It will do its best to take what it knows and ignores the rest (as we have learned above).

We also have a tendency of the fear of missing out (FOMO as it’s popularly known today) and with this new information, we feel we must put something into action!

How to overcome the bias: As difficult as it may be, you must stop, count to three and ask yourself a few questions.

These could be “why am I making this trade?”, “Does it fit in with what I know?”, “What am I missing here?”, “Have I read something recently about this?”. Better yet, build yourself a checklist with these questions on it!

3)     The Endowment effect / Sunk cost fallacy

The endowment effect means we tend to value something more after we’ve owned it for a while.
In a now-classic study featuring Richard Thaler and Daniel Kahneman (both Nobel prize winners), students were given a mug and were asked how much they would sell it for an equally valued pen as an alternative. The experimenters found that the median price for which they would sell was TWICE as much as they were willing to pay to acquire the mug.

Because of our aversion to losses (also known as prospect theory – another big bias which I’ll cover later), this can have a drastic effect on our trading success. We place a trade on AUDUSD, with a target profit or loss of only 50 pips. Yet when the trade starts to go against us, what’s the first thing we often do? Move our stop loss further out because we “just know it’s going to turn around.” We tell ourselves stories like “The euro is cheap here, it’ll definitely turn around.”

Because we are committed to this trade (and this is somewhat related to the confirmation bias) we value it more just because we own it and because we have already invested in it, it becomes a “sunk cost”.

How to overcome: Fairly obvious advice to start; keep your stop losses and targets where they are. Be more mindful about why you’ve put them at these levels. If it helps you, write down the reasons why you’ve placed your stop and profit there and you can take comfort in understanding your own reasoning.

4) “The Gambler’s fallacy”

The gambler’s fallacy is where we believe that future probabilities are altered by previous events, when in fact, they’re unchanged.

It is called the “gamblers fallacy” due to the often-watched scene of any table game at the casino (e.g. roulette) as it continues landing on black over and over. People see this and think ‘it couldn’t possibly do that again’ and try to bet against it.

Being contrarian is great, don’t get me wrong.

However, as traders and human beings, we tend to believe that if something happens multiple times, it couldn’t happen again. We ignore simple probability.

Let’s say the S&P500 has rallied five days in a row. We place a trade in the belief that “it must be due for a correction” only to watch it rally and stop us out of our position.

How to overcome: It is important to look at the original thinking that led you to this trade. Just because something has moved up or down in a continuous fashion, it does not mean the market will immediately reverse its behaviour and go the other way. Just try catching a falling knife and you’ll know why.

5)     The Groupthink Bias

The “groupthink bias” is our inclination to do or believe things just because others do the same. Also known as the “bandwagon” or “herd behaviour”, it can lead to having a serious trading hangover; ask yourself an odd question like “why on earth did I go long the EURCHF last night?”

After all, you can’t do the same things others do and expect to win.

A recent example was after the US Presidential election. Everyone thought if The Donald got in, it would be a huge negative for the markets and the economy. Stocks fell initially and hard.

If you cashed out then and there because you thought it was going to lead to Armageddon, you made a very expensive mistake!

How to overcome: Sometimes it pays to be contrarian. If everyone is saying it’s going up, consider if going the same way will lead to riches. If everyone is saying it’s going down the toilet, consider if they could be wrong.

Be careful of those bandwagons!

So, which of the above are you most guilty of?

One of the questions I'm frequently asked is "How do you follow the markets? So, I thought it was time to compile a list of tools I use nearly daily that help me become a better trader.

These are for various experience levels. Oh, and they also happen to be completely free.

Here they are:

1. Babypips.com – Depending on your trading experience, their free forex school is second to none. It covers from beginners to advanced. In fact, these resources are so comprehensive that most brokers I’ve worked for make any new employees do the course from front to back!

2. Forexlive.com – handy website that I personally use and love! It has the most important (and live) news in the currency markets (hence the name). I remember during the Brexit vote that we were glued to their analysis of the markets.

3. Tradingview.com – If you love your charts and technical analysis (fun fact- something like 70% of traders do!) – then TradingView is for you. They have over 4,000,000 users, and the users are all very passionate! It’s not just for currencies either - you can pull up currencies, commodities, indices are more. While I’m personally not TOO much of a tech analysis guy, all my clients rave about TradingView.

4. John Authers' Commentary – To understand the forex markets, you need to understand the bigger macro picture. John is a must-read each day for me. I look forward to his email every day around the EU open. It covers stocks, bonds and what's catching his eye. If you read no other newsletter each day, make it this one.

5. Fusion Markets Economic Calendar– This is the only time we plug ourselves in our post. We used to have Myfxbook in there but we worked hard on finding a really slick calendar for you. Why a calendar? Knowing what big events are happening in the markets is critical. You don’t want to wake up and see the USD has made a 200 pip move and not known there’s been a US interest rate (FOMC) meeting. The Fusion economic calendar will be your friend. You can save the event to your calendar, view the results in real-time and can even see historical price movement and more. 

That’s it for now.

Why so short? The last thing you want is the “analysis paralysis” which comes from digesting 20+ resources. You will get overwhelmed and give up.

Believe me, it was hard for me to get it down to five, but these are my go-to resources, even if you asked me what the best paid subscription-based services are.

There is so much value in these resources, so please use them! Just because they’re free doesn’t mean it’s not great content. As I said, I use this every day myself (except Babypips – I like to think I’ve got the basics down pat) and I hope you do too.